Tesla’s 2020 Deliveries Beat Street’s Forecast; Analysts See 35% Downside

Tesla on Saturday announced that it delivered 499,550 electric vehicles in 2020, up from 367,500 units it had shipped in 2019. Deliveries for 2020 surpassed analysts’ expectations of 481,261 units, but fell fractionally short of CEO Elon Musk’s 500,000 target.

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Tesla’s (TSLA) Model Y crossover SUV and Model 3 Sedan made up 88.6% of the total 2020 deliveries while the older Model S and X accounted for the rest. During the year, Tesla shipped 442,511 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles while it delivered 57,039 units of Model S and X.

The company said, “Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more.” (See TSLA stock analysis on TipRanks)

In 4Q, the company shipped 180,570 electric vehicles, which came in 61.2% higher than the 112,000 units it had delivered in the year-ago quarter. Of the total, 161,650 were for the Model 3 and Model Y, reflecting year-over-year growth of 74.7%. However, shipments for Model S and X declined 2.7% to 18,920 units year-on-year. Its total production during the quarter increased by 71.4% year-over-year to 179,757 vehicles.

Additionally, the company announced that Model Y production has started in Shanghai and the deliveries could begin shortly.

Ahead of its quarterly production and shipment numbers, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives had reiterated his Hold rating as well as the price target of $715 (1.3% upside potential). In a note to investors, Ives wrote, “Based on our initial analysis of demand and the delivery trajectory globally for Tesla in 4Q, it appears Musk & Co. will likely handily exceed Street and internal expectations.”

The stock scores an analyst consensus of a Hold based on 11 Holds, 7 Buys and 7 Sells. With shares soaring over 743% in 2020, the average price target of $457.83 implies downside potential of about 35.1% to current levels.