A leading analyst at investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS) is throwing cold water on the rally in Tesla (TSLA) stock.
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Mark Delaney, a five-star rated analyst at Goldman Sachs, says that Tesla’s electric vehicle deliveries are unlikely to grow for all of this year compared to 2023. Delaney’s view runs contrary to Tesla management, which has said they expect deliveries would grow year-over-year for all of 2024 and have forecast at least 515,000 cars would be sold in the current fourth quarter.
Delaney disagrees and forecasts the sales number will come in closer to 510,000 electric vehicles based on his check of regional sales data. Owing to the lack of growth, Delaney has rated TSLA stock a Hold and has placed a $250 price target on the shares, which is nearly 30% lower than where they currently trade.
Consensus View
The fourth-quarter delivery consensus view across Wall Street is even lower than Delaney’s forecast at Goldman Sachs. According to data complied by FactSet, the consensus is for Tesla to deliver about 503,000 electric vehicles this quarter. The majority opinion is that Tesla’s full-year sales will decline about 1% from 2023 levels.
Looking ahead to 2025, Tesla is aiming for growth of 20% to 30%, and planning to launch a lower-priced model to help spur sales. The current growth projections imply 2025 deliveries at Tesla of about 2.3 million vehicles. Wall Street is less optimistic and projecting about 2.1 million deliveries next year.
TSLA stock has rallied since Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and is up 42% on the year.
Is TSLA Stock a Buy?
Tesla stock currently has a consensus Hold rating among 34 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on 11 Buy, 14 Hold, and nine Sell recommendations made in the last three months. The average TSLA price target of $233.67 implies 33.68% downside risk from current levels.
