Sugar Prices Hit Three-Year Low

Sugar prices have fallen to their lowest level in three years on news that India is restarting exports of the popular sweetener.

India, the world’s second largest sugar producer, has announced that it will allow one million metric tons of exports through to the end of September this year. India’s government is increasing its exports to support local sugar mills in the nation of more than one billion people.

Commodities analysts and traders have expressed surprise at India’s decision given that sugar production this year is expected to be below consumption for the first time in eight years. Some analysts say the long-term effect will be to keep pressure on global sugar prices.

Down to Start the Year

The price of white sugar has declined to $470.20 a ton, its lowest level since September 2021. India’s sugar production is forecast to be around 27 million tons this year, down from 32 million tons in 2024 and below annual consumption of more than 29 million tons.

In 2024, India’s government banned all exports of sugar to ensure adequate domestic supply for its citizens. That ban helped to support global prices of the commodity. But now, India’s government is reversing course after the nation’s sugar mills suffered economic hardship over the past year.

So far in 2025, the price of sugar is down 5%, with further declines expected among analysts and traders. The decline in sugar prices is expected to help candy makers such as Hershey Co. (HSY) that are struggling with record high prices for cocoa, the active ingredient in chocolate.

Is HSY Stock a Buy?

The stock of Hershey Co. has a consensus Moderate Sell rating among 19 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on 14 Hold and five Sell recommendations issued in the last three months. The average HSY price target of $169.13 implies 10.64% upside from current levels.

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