Last Updated: 4:00 PM EST
Stock indices finished today’s trading session in the green, even as investors readjust their outlook for rate cuts. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX), the S&P 500 (SPX), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 0.39%, 0.26%, and 0.18%, respectively.
Earlier today, J.P. Morgan and Citigroup revised their expectations for a July rate cut after the latest jobs report showed a 272,000 increase in jobs for May. J.P. Morgan now predicts the first 25 basis point rate cut will occur in November, while Citigroup expects a 75 basis point cut by September instead of July.
Nick Timiraos from The Wall Street Journal noted that most economists now foresee one or two rate cuts this year, either in September or December. Institutions like Bank of America, BNPP, Deutsche Bank, LH Meyer, and RBC anticipate a December cut, while others like Barclays, Evercore ISI, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC expect cuts by September.
Jefferies, Mizuho, and Societe Generale still predict the first rate cut in 2025, with no changes from last month. Meanwhile, as of its June 3 publication, MUFG remains the only institution expecting a 100 basis point cut in July.
As a result, investors are pricing in a 45% chance of a rate cut by September, which is lower than last week’s 51.3% probability, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
First Published: 4:56 AM EST
U.S. stock futures traded lower on Monday morning, ahead of key macro data this week, including the inflation reading for May and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), the S&P 500 (SPX), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) were down by about 0.15%, 0.17%, and 0.23%, respectively, at 4.55 a.m. EST, June 10.
On Friday, the three major indices ended the trading session in the red due to a strong-than-expected jobs report for May, which raised concerns about the potential delay in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. Despite the downturn on Friday, the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered gains for the full week, thanks to a rally fueled by semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA).
Key economic releases lined up for this week include the May reading of the Consumer Price Index (or CPI) on Wednesday, May’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report and Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ended June 8 on Thursday, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary report for June on Friday. These reports will help traders and investors further understand inflation levels and the overall state of the U.S. economy.
Importantly, the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) interest rate decision will be announced on Wednesday, with the U.S. central bank largely expected to hold interest rates steady.
Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year treasury yield was up at the time of writing, floating near 4.465%. At the same time, WTI crude oil futures trended higher, hovering near $75.79 per barrel as of the last check.
Elsewhere, European markets opened lower today following the initial results of the European Union’s Parliament elections. The preliminary data indicated that far-right parties could have an upper hand in the region over the next five years.
Several Asia-Pacific Markets Closed on Monday
Markets in China, Hong Kong, and Australia were closed on Monday.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei and Topix indices ended higher by 0.92% and 1%, respectively, on Monday.
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