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Northern Oil and Gas: Hold Rating Amidst Disappointing 2025 Guidance and Mixed 2024 Performance

Northern Oil and Gas: Hold Rating Amidst Disappointing 2025 Guidance and Mixed 2024 Performance

Mizuho Securities analyst William Janela has maintained their neutral stance on NOG stock, giving a Hold rating yesterday.

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William Janela has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors influencing Northern Oil and Gas. The company’s preliminary guidance for 2025 has been disappointing, with capital expenditures projected to be about 3% above consensus, while oil volume guidance is approximately 5% below expectations. This weaker production outlook is partially attributed to the timing of well completions, which may benefit 2026 but currently presents a challenge for the upcoming year.
Additionally, Northern Oil and Gas’s fourth-quarter results for 2024 underperformed market expectations, with oil volumes coming in roughly 2% below consensus and natural gas pricing appearing weaker. While capital expenditures were in line, these factors led to a reduction in cash flow estimates. The valuation of the stock, currently set at $45 per share based on its net asset value, shows the stock trading in line with its peers, justifying the Hold rating amidst these mixed signals.

Janela covers the Energy sector, focusing on stocks such as APA, Northern Oil And Gas, and Crescent Energy Company Class A. According to TipRanks, Janela has an average return of 15.6% and a 46.98% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released yesterday, RBC Capital also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $40.00 price target.

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