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Mattel’s Hold Rating: Navigating Modest Growth Amid Tariff Concerns and Depressed Valuation

Mattel’s Hold Rating: Navigating Modest Growth Amid Tariff Concerns and Depressed Valuation

Morgan Stanley analyst Megan Alexander has maintained their neutral stance on MAT stock, giving a Hold rating on January 29.

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Megan Alexander has given her Hold rating due to a combination of factors impacting Mattel’s financial outlook. Despite a strong beat in the fourth quarter earnings per share, driven by robust margin performance and favorable conditions below the line, the overall topline growth remained modest. The net sales saw a slight increase, but the guidance for FY25 earnings per share growth was below market consensus, primarily influenced by anticipated new US tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada.
Megan Alexander also highlighted concerns about the potential impact of these tariffs, noting the uncertainty surrounding their implementation and the challenges associated with passing on price increases in a generally deflationary market. Additionally, while the sales growth forecast was consistent with expectations, achieving this would require an acceleration in point-of-sale and market share performance, which she finds difficult to justify given recent trends. These factors, combined with a depressed stock valuation, led to the decision to maintain a Hold rating for Mattel.

According to TipRanks, Alexander is a 3-star analyst with an average return of 6.5% and a 54.24% success rate. Alexander covers the Consumer Cyclical sector, focusing on stocks such as Vail Resorts, Brunswick, and Mattel.

In another report released on January 29, J.P. Morgan also assigned a Hold rating to the stock with a $23.00 price target.

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