Analyst Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating on Marathon Petroleum (MPC – Research Report) and keeping the price target at $170.00.
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Jason Gabelman has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors, primarily the company’s strong performance despite external challenges. Marathon Petroleum led its large-cap peers with a significant earnings per share (EPS) beat, even though free cash flow excluding working capital (FCF ex WC) was in line with expectations, and the company had forecasted higher capital expenditures for 2025. This strong performance came despite a period of increased maintenance activities, which suggests resilience and operational strength.
Moreover, Gabelman points to macroeconomic dynamics, including industry maintenance trends and geopolitical factors such as potential sanctions against Iran, which could impact global oil supply and demand dynamics favorably for Marathon Petroleum. The guidance for a heavy turnaround quarter and the potential reduction in Chinese product exports due to these sanctions further support a positive outlook. Despite a reduction in the buyback forecast from $3 billion to $2.2 billion, the underlying fundamentals and strategic positioning of Marathon Petroleum remain strong, warranting a Buy rating.
Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 81 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is positive on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders buying their shares of MPC in relation to earlier this year.