Equinor ASA Hold Rating: Capex Reduction and Lower Cash Distribution Outlook Lead to Revised Price Target

TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman has maintained their neutral stance on EQNR stock, giving a Hold rating on February 5.

Jason Gabelman has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors, including Equinor ASA’s guidance on capital expenditure and cash distribution. While the company exceeded expectations with its announced 2025 capex reduction, the outlook for cash distribution was less favorable, with buybacks guided to the lower end of the expected range. Moreover, the CFO guidance suggests a lower cash flow from buybacks than anticipated, which contributes to a cautious view.
Gabelman also revised the price target from $26 to $22, factoring in a net present value of free cash flow to 2028 using a lower long-term price deck. While production forecasts were adjusted upwards, reflecting higher gas production in the US, these are offset by lower-margin expectations. The analyst further noted that Equinor does not plan to rely on its balance sheet for buybacks beyond 2025, which limits potential shareholder returns and supports the Hold recommendation.