Moderna Stock Plummets 20% on 2025 Guidance Cut

Moderna (MRNA) stock fell hard on Monday after the vaccine maker cut its 2025 revenue guidance by $1 billion. The company expects revenue for the year to range from $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, compared to its prior outlook of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion in net sales.

The damage to Moderna’s guidance comes as demand for its COVID-19 vaccines wanes. Additionally, the company’s bet on RSV shots was misplaced as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention narrowed its recommendation for vaccination. As a result, sales of RSV vaccines were “minimal” in 2024.

Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel warned investors about the RSV issue in a shareholder letter released Jan. 6. In it, he said the company was “too optimistic about our ability to break into the market given the headwinds from a midyear approval and launch.” However, how this affected its revenue guidance wasn’t revealed until a business update today.

How This Affects MRNA Stock

Investors are losing faith in Moderna following today’s COVID-19 and RSV update. The lowered guidance is taking its toll on their confidence, with MRNA shares down 19.98% as of this writing. This builds on a 67.35% decrease over the last year.

Today’s news also brings a selloff of MRNA shares with more than 20.84 million shares changing hands as of this writing. This is already more than double the company’s three-month daily average trading volume of about 8.09 million shares.

Is MRNA Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Turning to Wall Street, the analysts’ consensus rating for Moderna is Hold based on four Buy, 11 Hold, and four Sell ratings over the last three months. With that comes an average price target of $61.56, a high of $112, and a low of $31. This represents a potential 82.45% upside for MRNA stock. However, analysts may update their ratings and price targets following today’s guidance cut.

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