While biotech stock Moderna’s (NASDAQ:MRNA) entire drug portfolio is a little more than just COVID-19 shots, those still make up a pretty major part of the picture. Sufficiently major, in fact, that news about the size of that market prompted investors to pack up and walk away, taking over 9% of Moderna’s market cap with them at one point in Monday afternoon’s trading.
The word that torpedoed Moderna came from no less than fellow biotech stock Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), which noted that only about 24% of eligible Americans were going to get a booster shot for COVID-19. That makes for a maximum market of about 82 million people, substantially less than the earliest figures. Some analysts, like Chris Schott with JP Morgan, look for COVID-19 treatment sales to level off and become more predictable starting in 2024.
While, indeed, the COVID-19 sales extravaganza is starting to wear thin—especially among potential customers who regard it as little more than a trumped-up cold at this point—there’s still reason to pay attention to Moderna. In fact, some analysts are projecting that the next five years, waning COVID-19 sales and all, could actually be better than the last five. It’s recently rolled out several major announcements about new products to come as Moderna sets its sights on everything from oncology to rare diseases and beyond. Certainly, these will suffer the standard biotech curse of taking years, possibly decades, to produce returns. But it’s got a solid cash runway thanks to the COVID-19 sales.
What is the Target Price for Moderna Stock?
Meanwhile, analysts are taking a similarly long view. Currently, analyst consensus calls Moderna stock a Moderate Buy, supported by seven Buy ratings, six Holds, and one Sell. Further, Moderna stock offers investors 59.67% upside potential thanks to its average price target of $166.25 per share.
