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MicroStrategy’s Big Bitcoin Bet Faces Uncertain Future
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MicroStrategy’s Big Bitcoin Bet Faces Uncertain Future

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MicroStrategy’s bold Bitcoin bet has paid off, but its stock premium could face a sharp reversal as debt pressures mount.

MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) journey from a software company to a Bitcoin powerhouse has been nothing short of extraordinary. Led by founder Michael Saylor, the company has amassed over 400,000 Bitcoin, spending nearly $23.5 billion since 2020. With Bitcoin’s price surge, this bold strategy has yielded impressive results—MicroStrategy’s holdings are now worth more than $40 billion, according to data from MSTR Tracker. That’s a staggering $16.5 billion in unrealized profits.

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Bitcoin Yields Drive Stock Performance

MicroStrategy’s stock has skyrocketed by 2,500% since the company pivoted to Bitcoin. This year alone, the stock is up nearly 600%, outpacing Bitcoin’s 125% gain, according to Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer. This performance isn’t about its software business, which reported a loss of $18.5 million in Q3. Instead, the surge stems from a unique metric: “Bitcoin yield,” which measures BTC holdings per share.

Big Plans Can Equal Big Risks

MicroStrategy’s ambitions don’t stop there. In October, it announced the “21/21 Plan,” a $42 billion BTC buying spree funded by equity and debt. Yet, the company’s reliance on zero-interest loans raises eyebrows. As Palmer notes, if debt terms tighten or noteholders demand repayment, MicroStrategy may be forced to sell Bitcoin—a move that could disrupt the market.

Is MSTR Worth the Premium?

Currently trading at a 2x premium to its BTC treasury, MSTR faces skepticism. While Saylor predicts Bitcoin could hit $13 million by 2045, critics argue plain Bitcoin exposure, such as through BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), offers a safer bet. Investors must decide: ride the volatility or stick with the coin itself?

Is MicroStrategy a Good Stock to Buy Now?

Analysts remain bullish about MSTR stock, with a Strong Buy consensus rating based on a unanimous eight Buys. Over the past year, MSTR has skyrocketed by more than 550%, and the average MSTR price target of $497.13 implies an upside potential of 36.3% from current levels.

See more MSTR analyst ratings

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