As a key player in the Bitcoin domain, MARA Holdings (MARA) concluded 2024 with an impressive 44,394 BTC in its treasury, valued at about $4.3 billion. This marks an outstanding 192.5% surge in Bitcoin holdings from the 15,174 BTC it had at the start of the year. Aligned with Thiel’s long-term perspective, MARA has implemented a new treasury policy to keep all mined Bitcoin while boosting its reserves through capital market tools. The company raised over $2.1 billion through zero-interest convertible notes, helping substantially increase its BTC-per-share backing.
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With 2,514 BTC mined in Q4-24, it’s slated to achieve a potential annualized revenue of $1 billion if BTC hits $100k. This reliance on Bitcoin price hikes and high short interest could trigger a short squeeze setup if BTC prices hit a new peak.
Levered Bitcoin Exposure
MARA Holdings is a significant player in digital asset technology, focusing on Bitcoin mining. In December, MARA concluded the offering of convertible senior notes due in 2031, generating net proceeds of $835.1 million, with plans to use $48 million to repurchase $51 million of its existing 2026 convertible notes and the remaining funds for Bitcoin acquisition and other corporate purposes.
The company added 22,065 BTC to its portfolio at an average price of $87,205 and mined 9,457 more. By the end of 2024, MARA owned 44,893 BTC, valued at $4.2 billion based on the BTC spot price of $93,354. An additional 7,377 BTC were loaned for further profit generation.
By the end of 2024, MARA Holdings exceeded its target of 50 EH/s in hash rate, a measure of computational power in cryptocurrency mining, achieving an impressive 53.2 EH/s, a 15% increase from November. However, its BTC production fell slightly, by 2%, to 890 BTC due to a decrease in mining luck. Nevertheless, MARA’s annual hash rate growth saw an exponential rise of 168%, significantly outpacing Bitcoin’s network growth rate of 49%.
Analysts project Bitcoin’s value could grow to $225,000 by 2025, leading to a $4.5 trillion market cap based on historical price patterns, current trends, and anticipated U.S. regulatory changes in 2025. New spot exchange-traded funds and increased institutional adoption may fuel a bull market for Bitcoin and miners.
Cautious Optimism
The stock has been highly volatile (beta 3.40), experiencing significant price spikes while posting a negative return of 36% over the past three years. It trades near the lower end of its 52-week price range of $13.17 – $34.09 and shows ongoing negative price momentum by trading below major moving averages. Further, 24.5% of the outstanding stock is held in short interest, providing potential fuel to drive the stock higher from a short squeeze if Bitcoin continues to see its price increase.
Analysts following the company have been cautiously optimistic about MARA stock. For instance, B. Riley’s Lucas Pipes recently raised the price target on the shares to $23 (from $21) while maintaining a Neutral rating, noting the bullish sentiment around BTC mining continues to grow, with the global hash rate rising 11%. Mara is particularly well positioned, using proceeds from their convertible senior notes, which are primarily offered for BTC purchases.
MARA Holdings is rated a Moderate Buy overall, based on the recent recommendations of 12 analysts. Their average price target for MARA stock is $27.80, representing a potential upside of 55.66% from current levels.
MARA in Review
MARA Holdings has made significant progress by closing out 2024 with an impressive 44,394 BTC, valued at around $4.3 billion – almost tripling its Bitcoin holdings from the beginning-of-year amount. The company’s strategic approach to treasury policy and capital market tools has contributed to this success, raising over $2.1 billion through zero-interest convertible notes. Despite some volatility and a negative return over the past three years, analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the company, making it an intriguing option for investors looking to gain exposure to Bitcoin mining.
