Now that Elon Musk has taken a victory lap after winning the shareholder vote approval to reinstate his $56 billion pay package, he seems in the mood to give the Rocky franchise a run for its money. No, Musk has not taken up boxing (although whatever did happen to that Musk-Zuckerberg cage fight?) but has announced the sequel to the Master Plan 3, the aptly titled Master Plan 4.
“It will be epic,” Musk wrote on X, in what should represent an outline of Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) next strategic phase.
Musk’s first three Master Plans for Tesla laid out his vision for sustainable energy and transportation. The first plan (2006) aimed to build a high-performance electric car and use the profits to make affordable EVs. The second plan (2016) focused on integrating solar energy, expanding the EV lineup, and advancing self-driving tech. The third plan (2023) targeted scaling vehicle production, investing in renewable energy, and enhancing autonomous driving, aiming for a fully sustainable energy economy.
So, what will the next one feature? Well, for a company known as the pioneer of electric vehicles, it will be “anything but cars,” says Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas.
“Ok, Tesla will still make cars, but we think investors should prepare for something else,” the analyst added. “We expect MP4 to be underpinned by Tesla’s commercial ambitions in AI, robotics, hybrid compute (including distributed thermal and compute in the car) that spans from cloud to edge.”
AI and robotics are entering an unprecedented phase, unlocking new TAMs (total addressable markets) and pushing the company “deeper into new disciplines.” Therefore, Jonas thinks investors should ready themselves for a Master Plan 4 that will more clearly link Tesla with Musk’s other ventures, including SpaceX/Starlink, X, and xAI.
Drawing parallels between Tesla and other tech giants, Jonas suggests that the car is to Tesla what video game chips are to Nvidia and what book sales are to Amazon.
“The auto business still matters to Tesla, but over the next 6 to 12 months, we think it may matter less to Tesla’s fundamentals and valuation due to a combination of subtraction (weaker EV market) and addition (new product categories),” the analyst summed up.
All in, Jonas remains the Street’s most fervent TSLA bull, issuing an Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating on the shares to go alongside a Street-high $310 price target. Should that figure be met, investors could be buying shares at a ~68% discount a year from now. (To watch Jonas’ track record, click here)
Most on the Street, however, aren’t nearly as confident. Based on a mix of 14 Holds, 10 Buys and 9 Sells, the analyst consensus rates TSLA stock a Hold. At $176.96, the average target suggests the stock will decline by 4% over the coming months. (See TSLA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
