Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is sure to draw most of Wall Street’s attention this afternoon when it delivers its January quarter (FQ4) report after the close.
The latest readout comes at a time of relative uncertainty for the chip giant; delays to its new Blackwell GPU architecture and the surprising entrance of China’s DeepSeek into the AI game have clouded this magnificent growth story somewhat.
Yet, with the print about to hit, Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore says that some of his previous concerns are not quite as prominent as they were a little while ago.
“We continue to think that near-term fundamentals are strong – more so than 60 days ago as we have seen improvements on multiple levels,” said Moore, who ranks in the top 4% of Wall Street stock experts.
At the start of the quarter, Moore anticipated the company would beat the forecasts for the January quarter and meet consensus expectations for April. However, due to sluggish Hopper demand and initial difficulties with Blackwell, especially the GB200 form factor, the 5-star analyst thought the company “would have to work to do so.” Now, though, Moore is “more comfortable on both issues.”
So, what changed? Essentially, the alleviation of “Hopper angst.” A few months ago, concerns around Hopper weren’t necessarily about near-term cloud demand with Moore noting that several cloud vendors said supply constraints were “holding back” revenue. Instead, the issue was an economic one: with Blackwell approaching, how long would a Hopper chip remain valuable in the cloud? Customers weighed whether to buy or wait 90 days for Blackwell availability. “So demand was good, but less good than the prior quarter,” says Moore.
Yet interestingly, since DeepSeek R1’s negative impact, Moore’s checks suggest demand has rebounded. That is at least partly due to concerns over potential export controls pushing some international buyers to act sooner. “Pull-forwards aren’t the best source of demand, but given that Hopper builds are coming to a natural end, it is a nice bridge to a strong potential for Blackwell in 2h,” Moore went on to say.
But while Moore’s conclusion is that Nvidia has had a “strong start to the year,” it’s the prospect of possible upcoming export restrictions that he thinks should put a lid on expectations for the outlook. Following DeepSeek’s success with the R1 model, the government will likely impose tighter restrictions, though the specifics remain uncertain for now. “With that risk out there, we just don’t see why NVIDIA would guide any more aggressively than the recent algorithm (beat guidance by close to $2bn, guide up by $2-2.5 bn, which would put us around $42 bn) suggests,” the analyst summed up.
All told, ahead of the print, Moore rates NVDA shares an Overweight (i.e., Buy), along with a $152 price target. This figure suggests the stock will be changing hands for a 15% premium a year from now. (To watch Moore’s track record, click here)
Turning now to the rest of the Street, where Nvidia gets plenty of support; the stock’s Strong Buy consensus rating is based on 31 Buys vs. 2 Holds. Going by the $179.77 average price target, a year from now, shares will be changing hands for a ~36% premium. (See NVDA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.