KeyBanc analysts expect tech giant Apple (AAPL) to post fiscal Q1 2025 results that are in line with market estimates, but they also predict that guidance will come in weaker-than-expected for the second quarter. The firm maintains its Underweight rating with a $200 price target, a level Apple shares haven’t hit since June 2024.
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KeyBanc’s analysis, based on spending data from 1.8 million U.S. credit and debit cardholders, showed December spending on Apple products grew 28% month-over-month, falling short of the 36% three-year average. Analysts Brandon Nispel and John Vinh–who are rated four and five stars, respectively, on TipRanks–noted that, despite some year-over-year improvement, Apple’s spending trends were still below typical seasonal performance, even after the iPhone 16’s September release.
Several factors contribute to slower sales growth, including Apple Intelligence’s lackluster impact on upgrades, a ban on iPhone 16 sales in Indonesia, and growing competition in China. KeyBanc also argues that Apple’s valuation is unjustified, with the company trading at 22x its projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA compared to a peer average of 15.7x. Apple will report its Q1 2025 earnings on January 30, with consensus estimates forecasting $2.35 EPS on $124.22 billion in revenue.
Is Apple a Buy or Sell Right Now?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on AAPL stock based on 19 Buys, seven Holds, and three Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. After a 28% rally in its share price over the past year, the average AAPL price target of $244.77 per share implies 4.8% downside risk.
