Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni upgraded Airbnb (ABNB) stock to Buy from Hold and increased the price target from $165 to $185, citing the online rental platform’s durable lodging growth and new products like Experiences. Notably, the four-star analyst expects the company’s market share gains in lodging to be bolstered by the rising adoption of Experiences, an opportunity that ABNB is “uniquely well positioned to capture.”
Jefferies Turns Bullish on ABNB Stock
Colantuoni’s upgrade follows Airbnb’s better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, as travel demand continues to be strong. Let’s look at the reasons behind Colantuoni’s rating upgrade.
- More Room for Lodging Share Gains: The analyst noted that Airbnb has reported more than 10% growth in Bookings since the COVID-19 pandemic ended. In fact, in Q4 2024, ABNB reported a 500 basis points acceleration in Bookings to 15%, which marked the highest level in nearly two years. He added that recent results highlight ABNB’s long track record of capturing share gains in lodging, driven by demographic tailwinds, investments in underpenetrated markets, diversification into new marketing channels, and potential expansion into new listing categories like hotels.
- Growth Strengthened by the Relaunch of Experiences: Colantuoni is optimistic about the company’s focus on experiences (like tours and day trips), which is expected to support its growth story. According to the analyst, Jefferies’ analysis indicates that about $260 billion is spent on experiences globally, of which only $70 billion is booked online. The analyst expects this figure to reach ~$150 billion in 2030. He expects Airbnb’s share of online experiences to increase from 3% today to 6% in 2030, adding $1.6 billion and $0.8 billion to ABNB’s revenue and EBITDA, respectively, in 2030.
- Take Rate Expansion: Colantuoni believes that Airbnb can drive additional revenue from a combination of sponsored listings, host/guest services, and expansion of insurance. According to Jefferies’ analysis, these three drivers could generate an upside of 400 basis points in ABNB’s take rate by 2030. Further, the analyst estimates take rate expansion to contribute $8.2 billion and $4.1 billion to revenue and EBITDA, respectively, in 2030.
Colantuoni ranks 1,032 out of more than 9,400 analysts tracked on TipRanks. He has a success rate of 63%, with an average return per rating of 8.9% over a one-year period.
Is ABNB Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
While Colantuoni is bullish on Airbnb stock, many analysts prefer to be on the sidelines due to the company’s Q1 guidance miss and macro uncertainties. The consensus rating is a Hold on ABNB stock, based on 11 Buys, 17 Holds, and four Sell recommendations. The average ABNB stock price target of $163.15 implies 23.5% upside potential.
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