Apple (AAPL) just flew straight into a geopolitical crosswind. In response to President Donald Trump’s steep new tariffs—announced six days ago and targeting Chinese imports with rates as high as 145%—the iPhone giant has been scrambling to limit the fallout. With production costs climbing and supply chains under pressure, Apple’s long-standing reliance on China is now being tested like never before. Investors are asking a blunt question: can Apple adapt fast enough, or is its China strategy turning into a liability?
Apple Airlifts iPhones as Tariffs Close In
This wasn’t your average shipping strategy. In March, Apple reportedly loaded nearly 600 tons of iPhones—about 1.5 million units—onto chartered cargo planes from India to the U.S. The last-minute operation was designed to beat the tariffs before they kicked in, protecting margins and store shelves alike.
Foxconn, Apple’s key supplier, shipped a record $1.31 billion in iPhones from India in March alone. Customs clearance times were slashed from 30 hours to just six as Apple and Indian authorities hustled to keep shipments moving. One insider told Reuters the push was a “full-court press to outmaneuver the policy chaos.”
India Becomes Apple’s Backup Plan
Apple’s shift to India isn’t just a temporary fix. Over the past year, the company has invested heavily in Indian manufacturing through partners like Foxconn and Tata. The goal: to reduce dependence on China, which remains Apple’s largest manufacturing hub—but also the epicenter of its current geopolitical headaches.
The urgency spiked when Trump’s new trade policy threatened to slap 100% tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, chips, and consumer electronics. Apple, with a massive footprint in China, was suddenly staring down higher costs on one end—and fragile demand on the other.
Moving Away From China Won’t Be Easy
But here’s the rub: replacing China isn’t simple. Apple has spent decades building one of the most efficient and complex supply chains in the world. Rebuilding that elsewhere takes time, capital, and precision. Analysts told AP News that full U.S.-based production could triple iPhone costs—hardly a price tag consumers or shareholders would swallow lightly.
So far, Apple’s made progress. It now manufactures about 7% of its iPhones in India, according to Reuters. But with over 90% of its production still China-dependent, the clock is ticking.
Stock Wobbles as Investors Brace for Impact
Apple’s stock has dropped 15% since early April, when the tariff headlines first hit. Temporary waivers have cooled nerves, but uncertainty remains.
“The fear isn’t just about tariffs,” one analyst told AP News. “It’s about whether Apple can rewire its global strategy fast enough to avoid major earnings hits.”
There’s also the risk of retaliation. China has already restricted exports of rare earth materials critical for chip production, and it could tighten its grip further. That adds another layer of risk to Apple’s manufacturing outlook.
Is Apple a Buy or Sell Right Now?
Overall, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on AAPL stock based on 18 Buys, 13 Holds, and three Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average AAPL price target of $239.89 per share implies 18.4% upside potential.
