Space technology company Intuitive Machines (LUNR) saw its shares rise by 30% following reports of a 79% increase in fourth-quarter revenue, driven by new contracts for its direct-to-earth services. The company’s fourth-quarter results showed an adjusted EBITDA loss of $11.2 million, slightly higher than the $6.1 million projection from Wall Street, from sales of $54.7 million. Although future sales projections for 2025 were lower than the expected $330 million, Intuitive anticipates positive EBITDA by 2026, aligning with Wall Street forecasts of $11 million.
Soft Forward Guidance, But Impressive Backlog Growth
Intuitive Machines focuses on space exploration technology and the development of infrastructure. The company’s core operations are centered on space systems and lunar services, providing a wide array of products, including lunar landers, communication technologies, and data analytics tools designed for space missions. The company serves a diverse range of clients, including governmental, commercial, and scientific entities dedicated to advancing lunar exploration and expanding the commercial space market.
For the fourth quarter, Intuitive Machines reported a 79% increase in year-over-year revenue, reaching $54.7 million, though it experienced an operating loss of $13.4 million. This contributed to full-year sales of approximately $228 million, with the company maintaining a solid cash position of $385 million and a record backlog of $328.3 million, representing a 22% year-over-year increase. Despite projecting 2025 sales between $250 million and $300 million—below the average analyst expectation of $342.5 million—the company anticipates achieving positive EBITDA on a non-GAAP adjusted basis by the end of this year. It aims for a positive adjusted EBITDA for the entire year of 2026.
Analysts Cautiously Optimistic
Overall, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the company’s potential despite recent setbacks. Cantor Fitzgerald, Canaccord, and Roth MKM have all recently adjusted their price targets, reflecting a mixed outlook. Cantor lowered its price target from $15 to $13 but maintained an Overweight rating, emphasizing that the company’s primary revenue is driven by space contracts rather than launch missions. Despite the recent moon landing anomaly, Cantor views current share levels as an attractive entry point and expects significant revenue from the IM-2 Mission, which is anticipated to account for over 90% of the company’s revenue.
Similarly, Canaccord revised its price target from $22 to $21 while maintaining a Buy rating, noting that although Q4 results were below estimates, the company provided promising details regarding future revenue from the IM-2 lunar mission and additional government contracts. Roth MKM also reduced its target from $20 to $12 but kept a Buy rating, acknowledging the challenges faced but expressing optimism about Intuitive Machines’ learning opportunities from lunar missions, particularly in the moon’s strategic south pole area.
Intuitive Machines is rated a Moderate Buy overall based on the recent recommendations of six analysts. The average price target for LUNR stock is $16.33, which represents a potential upside of 77.11% from current levels.
