Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has kicked off 2025 with a rollercoaster start. The EV giant’s shares initially dipped 6% on the year’s first trading day following disappointing Q4 delivery figures. However, the stock swiftly rebounded 8% on Friday after the company reported that its 2024 China sales had surged by 8.8%, reaching a record high of over 657,000 vehicles.
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Despite the impressive performance in China, the company’s broader delivery figures painted a more challenging picture. Tesla delivered 495,570 vehicles in Q4, missing Wall Street’s forecast of 506,673 units. This brought the full-year total to 1.79 million vehicles – down from 1.81 million in 2023 and marking the first annual delivery decline since Tesla went public. The company is dealing with softening demand for EVs in the U.S. and elsewhere, which even the record sales in China could not overcome.
So, what should investors be looking out for in 2025? Goldman Sachs’ Mark Delaney, an analyst ranked in the top 3% of Wall Street stock pros, thinks the focus will be on several key topics.
Growth remains a central theme, particularly after the slight miss in 2024. Tesla has projected 20-30% delivery growth for 2025, supported by new models such as a refreshed Model Y and lower-cost vehicles. Delaney warns, however, that new models might cannibalize sales of existing ones, though overall, the ramp-up of new offerings is expected to be positive.
Margins will also attract scrutiny, particularly in Tesla’s automotive division, while advancements in full self-driving (FSD) and AI technologies will play a significant role. Key developments include the release of FSD v13 and plans for a robotaxi rollout. Meanwhile, Tesla’s energy division is expanding, with profitability and energy storage deployments on the rise, although shipment volumes may fluctuate due to large-scale projects.
Finally, the Optimus robot, with “improved dexterity” and planned limited production in 2025, will be of interest, with expectations for further ramping up of production in 2026.
As for Delaney’s expectations, the analyst has now lowered his 2025 deliveries forecast from ~2.03 million to ~2.01 million while keeping his 2026 deliveries estimate of 2.30 million intact. Additionally, his 2024 EPS estimate including SBC comes down from the prior $2.01 to $2.00. Lastly, mainly due to lower auto deliveries, Delaney has reduced his 2025 EPS estimate including SBC from $2.85 to $2.80.
All told, Delaney rates TSLA shares as Neutral, while his $345 price target suggests a potential downside of 9% from current levels. (To watch Delaney’s track record, click here)
Elsewhere on the Street, the stock claims an additional 13 Buys, 10 Holds and 9 Sells, for a Hold consensus rating. However, that might as well be a Sell, considering the $306.60 average price target factors in a one-year slide of 25%. (See Tesla stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
