Gold ETFs have been left looking less shiny as President Trump’s trade tariffs take effect. But, they could regain their traditional place as a safe haven during troubled times if global trade friction continues to froth in the months ahead.
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The Gold Spot U.S. Dollar price was roughly flat early on Monday at around $2,800. It has risen 6% in 2025 to date and 38% over the last 12 months helped by falling interest rates, sticky inflation and geopolitical tensions.
Gold ETFs flat as U.S. Dollar Rises
The main Gold ETFs – SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), VanEck Gold Miners (GDX) and the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) – were also flat in pre-market trading. That may have come as a surprise to investors expecting gold to be the first hill to run to as Trump’s threatened tariffs took effect on Mexico, China, and Canada. The EU could be next in the firing line.
The reason gold was looking less attractive was the surge in the value of the U.S. dollar which makes dollar-denominated gold less of a pull for overseas buyers.
Other factors for the lackluster lure of gold could be expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay further interest rates cuts given increased consumer spending, and fears that the tariffs could hike inflation.
Gold Could Soar if Trade War Heats Up
But don’t give up on your Midas leanings just yet as the threat of a global trade war intensifies. Both Canada and Mexico have imposed their own tariffs and China is set to challenge the U.S. moves at the World Trade Organization.
Analysts at Citi certainly remain optimistic about gold, forecasting that if tariff escalations keep rising then it could drive gold prices to $3,000. This, it said, would be driven by that age-old safe-haven demand during times of global risk and crisis.
This, in turn, should be a fillip for Gold ETFs as well as other gold-linked investments such as equities. This includes Barrick Gold (GOLD) whose shares were also flat in pre-market trading.
Is GDX a Good ETF to Buy?
On TipRanks, GDX has a Moderate Buy consensus based on 50 Buy and 8 Hold ratings. GDX stock’s consensus price target is $45.61 implying an 17.07% upside.
