The race for Ethereum (ETH-USD) to hit the $5,000 milestone is heating up, but experts are divided on whether the cryptocurrency can achieve this explosive target. Data from on-chain options protocol Derive suggests Ethereum has less than a 10% chance of reaching $5K by the end of 2024, despite a surge in exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows pointing to a potential “supply-side crisis.” Ethereum’s current price of $3,712 would need to jump 35% to cross the finish line, a climb that some analysts see as increasingly unlikely.
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Derive Predicts Slim Odds
Derive’s head of research, Sean Dawson, reported that the probability of Ethereum reaching $5,000 by December 27 peaked at 16% but has since adjusted to just over 8%. “The trading of calls and puts for ETH is evenly distributed, suggesting a neutral market sentiment,” Dawson noted in the December 10 report. This tempered outlook contrasts with the bullish sentiment swirling around recent ETF activity, which has seen investors pour billions into Ethereum-backed funds.
ETF Inflows Spark Optimism
While Derive remains cautious, others are taking a more optimistic view. On December 10, Ethereum contributor Eric Conner highlighted $305 million in Ether ETF inflows, with Fidelity’s Ethereum Fund alone accounting for a staggering $202.2 million, according to Farside Investors. Ethereum educator Anthony Sassano echoed Conner’s enthusiasm, remarking that “TradFi is gobbling up the cheap ETH,” a signal that institutional interest could further tighten supply.
Traders Bet on New All-Time High
Some crypto traders are still betting big on Ethereum. Pseudonymous trader CoinMamba boldly reiterated their $5,000 target by year-end, adding, “Do what you will with that information.” Meanwhile, Bankless podcast host Ryan Adams speculated on December 9 that Ethereum could hit a new all-time high—currently $4,878—within a week. Pentoshi, another prominent trader, cited structural changes in the market and consistent ETF flows as reasons for optimism, noting that Ethereum recently closed at its highest weekly price of the year.
As Ethereum marches toward the end of 2024, the debate remains unresolved. Will institutional demand and structural changes push it to new heights, or will the neutral market sentiment highlighted by Derive prevail?
At the time of writing, Ethereum is sitting at $3,711.93.
