Elon Musk’s electric vehicle manufacturer, Tesla (TSLA), is gearing up to release its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on January 29. Tesla’s stock has jumped over 108% in the past year, driven by expectations of a cheaper EV model, progress in self-driving tech, and a supportive policy environment under President Trump. Wall Street analysts are forecasting earnings of $0.76 per share, marking a 7% increase from last year’s Q3.
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Meanwhile, revenue is expected to reach $27.2 billion, representing an 8% year-over-year decline, according to data from the TipRanks Forecast page below. As Q4 approaches, it’s worth noting that Tesla has missed consensus EPS estimates in four out of the past nine quarters.
Recent Event to Consider Ahead of Q4
Earlier this month, Tesla shared its fourth-quarter delivery numbers. The company reported 495,570 deliveries for Q4, falling short of analysts’ estimate of 504,770. Also, its 2024 deliveries totaled 1,789,226, a 1.1% decrease from the 1.81 million delivered the previous year.
The shortfall highlights ongoing challenges from the economy and strong competition, particularly in China.
Analysts’ Views on TSLA Ahead of Q4 Results
Ahead of Tesla’s Q4 results, RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan reiterated an Outperform rating and a $440 price target. Narayan believes the new administration could support regulations on self-driving cars, though Tesla’s success with robotaxis will depend on the development of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software.
He also added that while FSD is recognized as one of the best in its class, it remains uncertain whether it will be ready for fully autonomous robotaxis soon. Nevertheless, Narayan sees potential for Tesla to capture a significant market, particularly in the U.S., with growing FSD adoption and the possibility of price cuts improving margins.
Similarly, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives raised Tesla’s price target to $550 from $515, maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm is confident in Tesla’s delivery demand for 2025 and the potential boost for autonomous vehicles under the Trump administration.
Options Traders Anticipate a Large Move
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can gauge options traders’ expectations for the stock post-earnings report. Based on a $207.5 strike price, with call options priced at $13.49 and put options at $0.01, the expected price movement, based on the at-the-money straddle, is 8.91%.
Is Tesla a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Turning to Wall Street, Tesla stock has a Hold consensus rating based on 13 Buys, nine Holds, and eight Sells assigned in the last three months. At $338.91, the average TSLA price target implies 14.66% downside potential.
