Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock has been on a wild ride over the past few months – after hitting a 52-week low during the early April Liberation Day slump, it has since bounced back ~83%.
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Much of that rebound was driven by renewed investor optimism around AI demand, and the past week brought even more fuel to the fire. The Trump administration assured Nvidia that it would be allowed to export its advanced AI chips to China – a major relief, given that the company had taken a $4.5 billion revenue hit in Fiscal Q1 2026 due to those export restrictions.
With this regulatory overhang lifted, some investors might assume Nvidia is back on an unstoppable path. But not everyone is convinced that now is the time to pile in.
Top investor Brett Ashcroft Green urges caution, arguing that the recent rally may have already run too far, too fast.
“As enthusiastic as I am, the run has just been too far too fast, and I am downgrading NVDA,” explains Green, who ranks among the top 4% of TipRanks’ stock pros.
The investor doesn’t question Nvidia’s fundamental strength. In fact, he believes the long-term growth story remains intact, especially with a potential catalyst on the horizon: sovereign AI. These country-specific systems, tailored to local regulations, have been championed by CEO Jensen Huang for years. The recent U.S. government adoption of AI tools like Elon Musk’s Grok may be just the beginning of a broader global push. If sovereign AI gains traction, demand for Nvidia’s chips could scale even faster than current forecasts suggest.
However, Green tempers expectations by pointing out supply constraints. Nvidia likely won’t be able to manufacture chips fast enough to meet soaring global demand, which naturally limits its growth trajectory.
What’s more concerning to Green, as noted, is how much more expensive the stock has become from a valuation perspective. In April, Nvidia had the third-lowest Forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio among the Magnificent 7 at 21.31x. It now holds the second-highest at 39.75x.
“If you own it, hold it and enjoy the ride, if not, I’d personally wait for better prices as the market basks in giddiness,” Green concludes, rating NVDA shares a Hold (i.e., Neutral). (To watch Green’s track record, click here)
Wall Street, meanwhile, maintains a bullish stance. NVDA holds a Strong Buy consensus, backed by 34 Buy ratings versus just 3 Holds and a single Sell. However, the average price target of $182.06 implies only ~6% upside from current levels, suggesting that while sentiment remains positive, much of the expected growth may already be priced in. It will be interesting to see whether analysts revise their targets upward in the coming weeks. (See NVDA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.