Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) had a challenging fourth quarter, with revenue and earnings falling short of analyst expectations. Their annual revenue took a dip, dropping $14.5 million from the prior year to a total of $152.3 million. However, good news came in the form of European approval for their COVID-19 vaccine, KOSTAIVE, and advancements in cystic fibrosis and ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency treatments. Nevertheless, Arcturus has revised its 2025 projections, foreseeing EPS losses in the first two quarters while predicting revenues of $62.5 million and $70.3 million, respectively. The stock has seen a nearly 12% decrease since the announcement.
A Robust Treatment Pipeline
Arcturus Therapeutics is an mRNA medicines and vaccines company. Its therapies include LUNAR lipid-mediated delivery, STARR mRNA technology, and KOSTAIVE = the world’s first approved self-amplifying mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. It has an extensive patent portfolio, with over 500 patents and applications globally.
The company has recently made significant advancements in its mRNA therapeutic development, with two key products, ARCT-032 for cystic fibrosis and ARCT-810 for ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency, initiating dosing in Phase 2 studies as of December 2024. Results for both trials are anticipated to be released by the end of Q2 2025.
Further, the company’s sa-mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, KOSTAIVE, received approval from the European Commission in February 2025 based on strong clinical evidence from multiple studies. KOSTAIVE is now approved for use in all 27 EU member states and three additional European Economic Area countries.
The company has also initiated clinical trials for ARCT-2304, a new sa-mRNA vaccine candidate to prevent pandemic influenza disease caused by the H5N1 virus, with interim Phase 1 data expected in H2 2025.
Analysts Lower Price Targets
Arcturus reported a decrease in revenue for the fourth quarter and 2024. Total operating, research, and development expenses increased for the quarter and the year, mainly due to higher clinical trial costs associated with multiple programs, including COVID-19.
Net losses increased for the quarter and the full year, with year-end losses totaling $80.9 million. Despite the losses and decreased revenue, Arcturus’ cash position remains solid, with cash and equivalents totaling $293.9 million as of year-end. Based on current programs, the company’s cash runway is expected to extend until the end of Q1 2027.
Analysts have responded by lowering their price targets for Arcturus Therapeutics stock. For example, Canaccord and H.C. Wainwright have revised to $68 (from $74) and $60 (from $63), respectively. Despite this, both firms maintain a Buy rating for the shares. Canaccord noted that Arcturus’ 4Q24 earnings showed positive pipeline updates, and key programs remain on target. Meanwhile, H.C. Wainwright highlighted that Arcturus’ Phase 2 study of ARCT-032, a new drug in the pipeline for treating cystic fibrosis, is expected to hit its target by 2Q25.
Arcturus Therapeutics is rated a Strong Buy overall, based on the recent recommendations of seven analysts. The average price target for ARCT stock is $71.83, which represents a potential upside of 443.75% from current levels.
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