Coinbase’s (NASDAQ:COIN) Q4 results were a reflection of a big shift taking place in the world of cryptocurrencies. With the US election coming in roughly in the middle of the quarter and Trump’s win sending crypto prices soaring, the leading crypto exchange saw a huge increase in usage.
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Trading activity saw a sharp rise, with volume reaching $439 million, compared to $185 million in the prior quarter and $154 million a year earlier. Meanwhile, transaction-based revenue experienced explosive growth, soaring to $1.56 billion from $572.5 million in Q3 and $529.3 million in 4Q23. The end result was revenue of $2.27 billion, marking a 138% year-over-year increase and surpassing Street estimates by $430 million.
At the other end of the spectrum, the results were just as impressive. EPS hit $4.68, leaving the $2.13 analysts were looking for in the dust and representing a huge jump from the $1.04 generated in 4Q23.
Interestingly, however, the shares fell in the aftermath, perhaps around concerns that peak growth has been reached with the company benefiting from what could be a one-off event, namely what has been called the “Trump bump.”
For example, Coinbase generated approximately $750 million in trading revenue from the start of 2025 through February 11. If this pace persists, transaction revenue for the quarter will stay roughly the same as in the previous period.
That said, JMP’s Devin Ryan, an analyst who ranks in the 9th spot amongst the thousands of Wall Street stock pros, thinks that that sort of view entirely misses the point here. COIN, says the analyst, is about to see the benefits of a “seismic shift occurring in the industry.”
In a significant break from the past, the new administration is very crypto-friendly, and the industry is currently in a transitional phase, awaiting clarity on the legislative and regulatory landscape.
While the details have yet to be finalized, Ryan expects more clarity over the next few quarters and the overall tone is “incredibly bullish.” From that point, Ryan anticipates “numerous knock-on implications” that will have “tangible impacts” on financial results. Essentially, the analyst sees a huge opportunity that is still in the early stages.
“When we take a step back and map out the broad strokes of where we think this business can be in a handful of years (and we think we are far more bullish than the market’s base case), we estimate the company will be multiples of its current size over the next five years and will operate at very high levels of profitability in a reasonable market backdrop, just as it delivered in the fourth quarter in a strong backdrop.” the 5-star analyst opined.
With that conviction, Ryan raised his price target on COIN from $400 to a Street-high of $475, implying an 80% upside over the next 12 months. He stands by his Outperform (i.e., Buy) rating, betting that the best is yet to come. (To watch Ryan’s track record, click here)
What does the broader Street think? Of the 20 analyst reviews over the past three months, 9 recommend Buy, while 11 remain on Hold, culminating in a Moderate Buy consensus. The average price target sits at $350.22, suggesting a 33% upside in the year ahead. (See COIN stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
