As 2024 heads toward its final stretch, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) bulls are excited, hoping to see BTC reach the ambitious $100,000 mark by year-end. Yet, according to Deribit Metrics, the options market currently assigns less than a 10% probability to this rally, suggesting that the dream of $100,000 might be more of a long shot than many had hoped.
$100K BTC Price Target Faces Low Probability
Despite optimism from both retail and sophisticated investors, Bitcoin’s options market on Deribit—one of the leading crypto derivatives exchanges—shows just a 9.58% chance of BTC hitting the six-figure milestone by December 27. This surprisingly low probability is calculated based on current volatility and pricing models, which rely on factors like Bitcoin’s spot price and expected market swings.
Bitcoin has seen relatively steady implied volatility this quarter, hovering between 50% and 60%—well below the high of 85% earlier in 2024. According to options experts, this stable volatility suggests traders aren’t banking on extreme price swings in the short term, reducing the likelihood of Bitcoin skyrocketing past $100K. As Griffin Ardern, head of options trading at crypto platform BloFin, told CoinDesk, “In the best-case scenario, the price of BTC will rise by more than 22% to around $82,000 by the end of the year.”
$82K BTC Is Seen as a More Realistic Target
While the $100K goal seems distant, the options market does signal a better chance of Bitcoin reaching $82,000 by year’s end. The probability of a 22% swing in either direction opens the door for a rally to this more attainable level, as Ardern noted. That said, he also pointed out that “volatility is bi-directional,” meaning that an equivalent drop is also on the table. In other words, while there’s potential for gains, the market is equally primed for a downward slide.
U.S. Election Could Stir Up Volatility
The U.S. presidential election on November 5 could inject new energy and unpredictability into Bitcoin’s trajectory. With crypto-friendly Republican candidate Donald Trump leading in some polls against Democrat Kamala Harris, a Trump win could encourage bullish sentiment. Still, Alexander Blume, CEO of Two Prime, likened the uncertainty to the volatility of biotech stocks on FDA decision days: “These stocks either fly or crash… you can typically bet something volatile will happen.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $67,792.24.
