Bitcoin could skyrocket to $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the U.S. Federal Reserve pivots back to quantitative easing, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX. That jaw-dropping forecast, shared in his April 1 Substack, hinges on the Fed quietly reversing course and flooding the system with cash again.
Hayes Sees Fed Pivot as Launchpad
In Hayes’ view, Bitcoin doesn’t move on vibes—it moves on fiat. “Bitcoin trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat,” he wrote. And if the Fed truly begins pivoting from quantitative tightening to easing—as Hayes suspects—then Bitcoin’s recent dip to $76,500 may have been the local bottom.
According to Reuters, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently said that while the Fed is keeping mortgage-backed security runoff steady, Treasury runoff has been slashed from $25 billion to just $5 billion a month. Hayes calls this move a signal. “That is treasury QE. Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced,” he wrote.
Others Call for a More Measured Rise
Still, not everyone’s throwing confetti at the $250K mark. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, projects Bitcoin hitting $132,000 based on M2 money supply growth. And over on Polymarket, only 9% of traders are betting on a $250K finish by 2025—most expect a more grounded $110,000.
Yet Hayes isn’t fazed. “I’ve been buying Bitcoin and shitcoins at all levels between $90,000 to $76,500,” he admitted, doubling down on his prediction. He even suggested that after Powell’s policy shift, China’s Xi Jinping could relax domestic monetary tightening, boosting liquidity further.
Long-Term Bitcoin Hodlers Hold Strong
While short-term traders are jittery, long-term investors are as calm as monks. According to Glassnode, Bitcoiners who bought between 2020 and 2022—with entry points between $3,600 and $69,000—are still holding firm, even as BTC grazed $110,000.
“This suggests that the majority of investors who entered between 2020 and 2022 are still holding,” Glassnode wrote on April 1. Meanwhile, the so-called “short-term holders” haven’t shown signs of a frothy top just yet. Participation remains far below past cycle peaks, suggesting this bull run still has room to breathe.
The narrative is building—Fed easing, tighter liquidity from China, and stubborn long-term holders all make a $250K Bitcoin feel less like fantasy. But with only 9% betting on that outcome, it seems many are still waiting for more fireworks before they believe the rocket’s been lit.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $84,919.
