Retail Bitcoin holders seem to believe the bull market may be running out of steam. According to CryptoQuant, retail investors sent 6,000 BTC (worth $625 million) to Binance in January. Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales—the so-called “smart money”—have only moved about 1,000 BTC to exchanges, suggesting they are taking a more patient approach. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost noted that this divergence in behavior highlights how retail investors often cash out early, while whales tend to wait for higher profits.
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Bull Market Still Has Room to Run
Despite retail sellers cashing out, analysts remain optimistic. CryptoCon, a market analyst, applied a historical trend model using Google search data for “Bitcoin.” He explained that retail interest often peaks and then declines just before major highs. According to his analysis, Bitcoin is currently transitioning into phase 4—what he calls the “first cycle top.”
Bitcoin Rides Strong January Gains
This January, Bitcoin saw an impressive 11% gain, making it the second-best performing month in the past ten months, tied with May 2024. Historically, Q1 has been bullish for Bitcoin, with February and March typically registering double-digit gains. Analysts expect that if this trend holds, Bitcoin could soon aim for new highs well beyond its current $104,000 price level.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $104,830.00.
