Bitcoin just wrapped its worst first quarter in seven years, and traders are bracing themselves because the pain might not be over yet. Bitcoin ended March down nearly 13%, slipping below $81,500 during Asian trading hours Monday. That marks its steepest Q1 drop since 2018, and traders are now watching $80,000 like hawks. While the March pullback was relatively tame—just 2.7%—quarterly losses tell a more sobering story. Gold (CM:XAUUSD), meanwhile, surged to new highs, cementing its role as the safe-haven of choice amid market turmoil.
Trump’s Tariff Threat Roils Risk Assets
April 2 is looming large. Dubbed “Liberation Day” by former President Donald Trump, it’s expected to usher in sweeping new U.S. trade tariffs. With $1.5 trillion in imports potentially affected, the move could be the biggest escalation of the trade war to date. Stocks are already skidding, and crypto’s not faring much better. Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to macro shocks, and uncertainty around tariffs is pushing investors toward the sidelines.
Death Cross Warnings and EMAs Flash Risk
Technical indicators aren’t offering much relief. Analysts are pointing to bearish engulfing patterns, looming “death crosses,” and pressure near key exponential moving averages. Traders say these compression zones could trigger an aggressive move—up or down.
The MVRV ratio, a key metric for market tops and bottoms, has cooled off—but hasn’t confirmed a reversal yet. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin may have exited its “overheated” zone, but no clear bottom has emerged.
Coinbase Premium Shows a Hint of Hope
One bright spot: panic selling may be easing. The Coinbase (COIN) Premium has held steady, suggesting U.S. investors are still nibbling at the dip. If that trend holds, it could lay the groundwork for a future reversal. But for now, with BTC teetering near $80K and macro clouds overhead, the mood remains cautious.
Bitcoin bulls may need to wait a little longer before lighting the fireworks.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $81,635.
