Bitcoin has fallen 10% this week, dropping to $86,300, breaking out of its previous $90,000–$110,000 trading range, according to CoinDesk. This sharp decline has traders watching one key level—the “runaway gap” in CME Bitcoin futures below $80,000, which formed three months ago following Donald Trump’s Nov. 4 election victory.
The CME gap refers to a blank space on a price chart where no trading occurred between a session’s close and the next opening. Many traders believe CME gaps tend to get filled because when a price jumps too quickly, it often returns to the level where it skipped trading. This happens because buyers and sellers who missed out on trading at that price may step in later, causing the price to revisit that level. Since Bitcoin’s futures market skipped over the $80,000 range in November, some traders think it could drop back to that level to “fill the gap.” According to Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, “Historically, CME gaps are filled eventually, and it is usually hard to say when.”
Market Sentiment Turns Risk-Off
The recent downturn comes amid unexpected market events, which have pushed traders intorisk-off mode, Sondergaard noted. The gap at $80,000 remains a key concern, but technical analysis suggests runaway gaps—which occur in strong trends—are less likely to be filled compared to exhaustion gaps, which signal trend reversals.
A new CME gap formed between Feb. 24 and Feb. 25. This has added more uncertainty regarding Bitcoin’s price movements. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $85,582.40.
