U.S.-based investment firm Robert W. Baird has reduced its price target on EV maker Tesla’s (TSLA) stock from $440 to $370, labeling it a “bearish fresh pick.” Analyst Ben Kallo of Baird cited near-term headwinds affecting Tesla’s Q1 deliveries and maintained a bearish short-term outlook. TSLA stock dropped by over 2% in pre-market trading.
Baird Predicts Lower Q1 Deliveries
Baird predicts that Tesla’s Q1 deliveries will reach 369,400 vehicles, about 16% below Wall Street’s consensus of 437,500. Kallo noted that Model Y production delays are pressuring supply, while CEO Elon Musk’s political ties contribute to demand uncertainty.
Analysts further highlighted Tesla’s “key man risk,” referring to Musk’s influence on the company’s outlook. They noted that his involvement with DOGE and the Trump administration could deter some buyers in the U.S. and Europe, adding uncertainty to demand. Even if actual demand remains steady, they expect concerns over potential demand weakness to persist in market discussions.
In context, Tesla’s poor start to the year continued in Europe, with German sales plunging 76% in February. Meanwhile, Tesla’s registrations fell between 42% and 48% across Sweden, Norway, and Denmark, while French sales dropped 26% last month. Additionally, Tesla’s sales of China-made EVs dropped 49% year-over-year in February, amid increasing competition in the region.
Nonetheless, Baird remains optimistic about Tesla’s long-term prospects, viewing the company as a leader in “real-world AI.” Kallo reiterated a Buy rating, forecasting a 32.5% upside.
Is Tesla a Good Share to Buy?
On Wall Street, analysts have maintained a neutral stance on Tesla stock. According to TipRanks, TSLA stock has received a Hold consensus rating, with 13 Buys, 12 Holds, and 10 Sells assigned in the last three months. The average price target for Tesla shares is $346.72, suggesting a potential upside of 24.23% from the current level.
