As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, Coinbase’s (COIN) near-term outlook is becoming increasingly tied to the election’s outcome, according to a recent note from B. Riley Securities. Four-star analyst Hal Goetsch suggests that a Trump administration could be more favorable for crypto assets and crypto exchanges, like Coinbase, while a Harris administration might take a slower approach and maintain the current status quo.
In July, former President Donald Trump proposed a plan to make the U.S. a global crypto and Bitcoin superpower, which included holding Bitcoin in a national strategic stockpile. On the other hand, Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign has shown some interest in the crypto space, although with a less aggressive tone compared to Trump.
Goetsch expects Coinbase’s stock to remain in a tight range until the election provides more regulatory clarity or until another catalyst appears to drive consistent profit growth. As a result, the analyst has a Hold rating on COIN stock with a $185 per share price target, which equates to a roughly 8% drawdown from current levels.
Potential Catalysts
Understandably, Goetsch wants to see a positive catalyst before becoming bullish on Coinbase. However, some bullish analysts already see some on the horizon. Indeed, according to TipRanks’ Bulls Say, Bears Say tool, the bulls point to the firm’s geographical expansion initiatives as a reason to be long the stock. Greater revenue diversification should also help, as it will reduce earnings volatility and possibly give investors the confidence to pay a higher valuation multiple.
Nevertheless, revenue remains volatile at the moment, and Coinbase appears to be losing market share to its competitors, as the bears point out below.
Is COIN a Good Buy Now?
Overall, analysts have a Moderate consensus rating on COIN stock based on eight Buys, seven Holds, and one Sell assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. After a 146% rally in its share price over the past year, the average COIN price target of $261.08 per share implies 30.25% upside potential.
