Electric vehicle (EV) stocks have been charging higher year-to-date, thanks in part to the big weight lifted off the shoulders of the weighed-down tech sector. Undoubtedly, many headwinds are still working against growth stocks that either possess no profits or are trading at absurdly-high price-to-earnings (or price-to-sales) multiples.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and NIO (NASDAQ:NIO) are two of the most popular EV firms that come to mind when one thinks of the electrification of cars trend. Both stocks suffered a bit of a valuation reset last year amid the broader market’s rate-fueled slump. Still, 2023 has been a huge year of relief, at least so far. Year-to-date, TSLA and NIO shares are up 93% and 5.8%, respectively.
Tesla stock has been one of the hottest year-to-date performers, while NIO has enjoyed returns in line with the S&P 500 (SPX). Undoubtedly, Chinese stocks accompany a whole slate of geopolitical risks. With such risks come a relative discount to the domestic EV stocks. After Tesla stock’s sudden surge, it’s arguable that NIO’s relative discount is slightly extended.
Therefore, let’s see how these two EV stocks stack up for 2023.
The Case for Considering Chinese Stocks in Search of Greater Value
For investors willing to stomach the added risks of owning a Chinese stock, I do think there are shots at scoring a magnitude of value that can’t be had in the U.S. market. Now, investing in China won’t be everyone’s cup of tea. The domestic markets are already subject to enough uncertainty as is!
Regardless, it’s hard to ignore moves made by billionaire investment legends like The Big Short’s Dr. Michael Burry — who recently placed a bet on Chinese e-commerce stocks — or long-time Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) vice chairman Charlie Munger.
I think such moves suggest that the value in China makes up for the added geopolitical risks not present with comparable U.S. stocks.
Munger is a fantastic investor and a man known to share his thoughts with listeners without sugar-coating. Recently, Munger noted that it was “almost ridiculous” how much BYD (OTC:BYDDF) “is ahead of Tesla in China.”
Undoubtedly, BYD was one of Munger’s best bets for Berkshire. Though Tesla may be in the rear-view mirror of BYD in the Chinese market, it’s unclear how the tides will turn over the coming years as Tesla looks to make good use of its dataset in areas such as autonomous driving.
As autonomy takes center stage, it’s tough to tell which EV firm will come out on top. For now, NIO looks to be an EV underdog versus the likes of BYD or Tesla.
Is Tesla Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Wall Street has a “Moderate Buy” rating, with 22 Buys, six Holds, and three Sells. The average TSLA stock price target of $202.46 implies 2.8% downside potential.
Tesla vs. NIO Stock: Valuing the 2 Top EV Rivals
The higher the growth and the more recent momentum behind a stock, the tougher it can be to value a name as rates climb while economic conditions wane. At writing, Tesla stock trades at a lofty 59.1 times trailing earnings and 8.1 times sales.
Following Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings beat, it’s not hard to imagine that the same hype that brought Tesla to new heights back in 2021 is in play again.
Meanwhile, NIO stock sports a negative price-to-earnings ratio but a more palatable 2.8 times sales ratio. After racking up a couple quarters of losses, NIO stock seems like a riskier proposition but one with more compelling potential rewards.
When Tesla started sustaining positive EPS numbers, its stock took off as profitability concerns and prior losses jitters were put to rest. In due time, I do think NIO could follow a similar script to Tesla despite intense competition as it looks to put its foot on the growth pedal rather than pulling it back to improve upon near-term margins.
Is NIO Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Wall Street views NIO favorably, with a “Moderate Buy” comprised of seven Buys and three Holds. The average NIO stock price target of $17.02 implies 67% upside potential.
The Takeaway: NIO Has More Upside Potential
Losses over at NIO don’t appear to be turning a corner as the Chinese EV firm ramps up production. That said, I am encouraged by the record deliveries in December (15,815 deliveries, up 51% year-over-year). Meanwhile, Tesla slashed the prices of its Model 3 and Model Y products back in October to help gain traction in China.
For now, the Chinese EV firms may have the upper hand on their home turf. Though Tesla could gain ground in China, I think the upside is limited compared to NIO or other Chinese EV firms. Tesla has had quite a run year-to-date, making additional gains likely harder to come by from here.
Wall Street expects more from NIO, with a nearly 70% in estimated upside over the 2.8% downside expected from Tesla.
