Selling Seems Overdone for Sea Stock

Sea Limited (SE) stock was trading at $40 at the beginning of 2020. The stock surged to highs of $372 by October 2021. A rally of more than 800% within 24 months was likely to be followed by a correction. However, the decline has been greater than expected and SE stock currently trades at $155.

I believe that the stock is attractive after a big correction, and the worst of the downside is over. Investors can consider fresh exposure to the stock at current levels.

It’s worth adding here that Sea Limited continues to deliver robust top-line growth. However, besides the profit booking factor, cash burn is one reason for the sharp decline in the stock. The concern seems to be temporary and provides investors with an entry opportunity.

Singapore-based Sea Limited is an internet and mobile platform company, which provides mobile digital content, e-commerce, gaming services and payment platforms. 

Robust Growth to Sustain

For Q3 2021, Sea reported revenue growth of 121.8% on a year-on-year basis to $2.7 billion.

Revenue growth for the company has been above 100% on a consistent basis. This explains the multi-fold returns before the current correction.

It’s also very likely that robust growth will sustain for Sea in the coming years.

A key reason is the company’s strong presence in the Southeast Asian markets. Reports suggest that Southeast Asia added 70 million shoppers since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

It’s also estimated that the number of online shoppers in Southeast Asia will reach 380 million by 2026. Indonesia is likely to be the leading market, followed by Vietnam and Thailand.

Clearly, Sea Limited has positive industry tailwinds and this will ensure that healthy growth sustains.

An important point to mention here is that as of Q3 2021, the company reported cash and equivalents of $11.12 billion. The company therefore has robust financial flexibility to pursue aggressive expansion and investment in marketing.

Cash Burn will Decline with Operating Leverage

When we look deeper into the company’s results, we can identify two primary segments that are potential cash flow drivers.

For Q3 2021, the Digital Entertainment segment reported bookings of $1.2 billion. On a year-on-year basis, bookings were higher by 29.2%. Further, the Digital Entertainment segment reported a positive EBITDA of $715.1 million. Therefore, the segment has a healthy adjusted EBITDA margin.

On the other hand, the E-commerce segment revenue growth was 134.4% on a year-on-year basis. The segment, however, reported negative EBITDA of $683.3 million. EBITDA level losses have sustained for the E-commerce segment and that’s one concern among market participants.

However, the key point to note is as follows – Amazon (AMZN), Alibaba (BABA) and JD.com (JD) are few examples of e-commerce businesses that are already cash flow machines. There is no reason to believe that Sea Limited can’t replicate a similar business model.

With more than 100% revenue growth in the e-commerce segment, the company is positioned to deliver improved EBITDA margin. Once the digital Entertainment and E-commerce segments report positive EBITDA, SE stock will rally.

Moreover, the company’s Digital Financial Services growth has also been robust. For Q3 2021, Sea reported $4.6 billion in mobile wallet payment volume. On a year-on-year basis, payment volumes were higher by 111%. With 39.3 million quarterly paying users, the Digital Financial Services segment is another potential game-changer.

Sea Limited, therefore, has three business segments that are on a healthy growth trajectory. Geographical expansion for e-commerce is also likely in the next few years. This will ensure that the growth trajectory sustains. The company’s mobile game already has presence in Latin America and India.

Wall Street’s Take

Turning to Wall Street, Sea Limited has a Strong Buy consensus rating, based on eight Buys and one Hold ratings assigned in the past three months. The average Sea Limited price target of $322.0 implies 107.8% upside potential.

Bottom Line

Sea Limited has the catalysts of positive industry tailwinds coupled with robust growth. Furthermore, the company has ample cash buffer to navigate the cash burn. With operating leverage in the e-commerce segment, SE likely to be a long-term value creator.

The correction in SE stock is therefore a good opportunity to accumulate. In all probability, the downside is capped from current levels and the upside potential is meaningful.

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