It has been a rough 2021 so far for XL Fleet (XL). The stock is down by a value-shredding 70%. The electrical vehicle company’s latest quarterly results have done nothing to halt the slide.
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In Q4, the company delivered revenue of $10.87 million, missing the estimates by $1.18 million. However, the bottom-line results came in better-than-expected with EPS of -$0.06 beating the Street’s call by $0.03.
While the report itself was a mixed bag, XL’s outlook is more worrying. For Q1, the company guided for revenue of $1 million, far below the consensus estimate of $8 million, and amounting to a sequential drop of over 90%.
XL management has said the decline is due to a couple of factors, namely Covid-related equipment shortages causing delays and seasonality. Last year, for example, 2H20 revenues came in 450% above 1H20 revenues.
Furthermore, due to market uncertainty, the company has also taken 2021 revenue projections off the table.
As a result, BTIG analyst Gregory Lewis has reduced his 2021 revenue estimate by 40% to $45 million. It’s not all bleak, however; looking ahead, Lewis expects the outlook to improve.
“Following the exercise of warrants,” Lewis said, “XL’s cash position stands at around $400M which we expect to be used to bring its all-electric solution to market in 2022 (currently working with around 20 customers on an all-EV solution), international expansion (should start contributing revenue in 2022), and strategic M&A as XL looks to build out its customer-driven product offering.”
The company’s ample cash position means it will look for “M&A opportunities,” and management has eyed potential targets, some “immediately accretive, while others would require an incubation period before generating revenue.”
Additionally, in February, XL disclosed that UBS Arena has chosen the company to be its electric transportation partner. The arena is anticipated to open in late 4Q21.
“While the project is still being finalized, initial plans include deploying 1,000 charging stations and utilizing solar and energy storage (right in XL Grid’s wheelhouse),” the analyst noted.
Moreover, Lewis thinks XL could potentially provide hybrid plug-in and all-electric solutions to the vehicles, such as shuttle buses, that service the facility.
To this end, Lewis sticks to a Buy rating, yet lowered the price target from $30 to $23. Nevertheless, despite the trim, the upside potential is still a strong 191%. (To watch Lewis’ track record, click here)
Only one other analyst is currently keeping a tab on XL’s prospects and he remains bullish too, adding another Buy rating into the mix. Overall, the stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating, backed by a $16.5 average price target. The implication for investors? Potential upside of ~110%. (See XL stock analysis on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
