Global commerce depends on seamless transactions, with every card swipe, online purchase, or corporate expense fueling the world’s economic engine. In this market niche, several firms are jostling for prime position. Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and American Express (AXP) are the architects of intricate payment ecosystems and the providers of credit to U.S. consumers.
As President Trump’s recent tariffs disrupt trade and ignite economic uncertainty, questions arise about the resilience of these blue-chip stocks. Rest assured, their foundations are firm, so I believe it’s worth remaining bullish on all three giants.
Visa (NYSE:V) | The Unshakable Network
Visa is the primary backbone of digital payments. The global payments juggernaut processes $15 trillion annually across 200 countries. Last year, its revenues climbed 10% to $36 billion, fueled by a 7% rise in payment volume. This year, Wall Street expects another double-digit revenue rise, with consensus seeing another 10% growth to $39.5 billion. Moreover, investors expect EPS to surge by more than 12% to $11.29, marking another record and signaling another year of uninterrupted momentum.
One could wonder why that market isn’t pricing enough tariff-related risks. Well, clearly, Visa doesn’t deal in physical goods. Instead, it only skims 2-3% per transaction, whether the product’s made in Guangzhou or Gary, Indiana. Recent data shows that cross-border transactions, a tariff-immune segment, surged 12% last quarter, and there is no reason to think that Visa will experience a slowdown in the coming quarters. If anything, the possibility of higher prices in certain consumer goods is only going boost its fees, as the percentage it collects remains unchanged.
Of course, if tariffs remain in place for a long time, Visa may indeed be indirectly affected. Yet, I doubt it’s going to be by much. Goldman Sachs pegs a 55% recession probability by mid-2026, which may squeeze consumer spending and, by extension, Visa’s swipe fees. Yet, Visa’s network is so rooted, servicing every major retailer from Amazon to your local deli, that a potential temporary shift in consumer preferences wouldn’t derail it.
Is Visa a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
On Wall Street, analysts are relatively bullish on Visa stock. The stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 24 Buy and four Hold ratings over the past three months. Visa’s average price target of $385.17 implies a ~16% upside potential over the next twelve months.
Mastercard (NYSE:MA) | The Data-Driven Dynamo
Mastercard operates in Visa’s shadow but matches its firepower, processing $9 trillion in transactions per annum. Like its cousin, its revenues rose 12% to $28.2 billion last year, with consensus estimates pointing to sustained momentum in 2025. This year’s revenues are expected to grow by 12% to reach a record of $31.5 billion. Operating essentially the same business model as Visa, Mastercard also sidesteps Trump’s tariff onslaught because its business is frictionless: fees on every swipe, untouched by import costs.
In the meantime, I like how Mastercard is expanding vertically. Specifically, its CEO, Michael Miebach, has been transforming the company from a pure card network into a broader fintech force. Mastercard’s newer businesses, including its data analytics, cybersecurity services, and open banking, are growing faster than core payment fees. Mastercard’s “value-added services and solutions” segment, in fact, saw revenues grow 17% on a currency-neutral basis in Q4, contributing significantly to last quarter’s growth.
Is Mastercard Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
There are 28 analysts offering price targets on MA stock via TipRanks. Like Visa, the stock carries a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 25 Buy and three Hold ratings over the past three months. MA’s average price target of $626.30 implies a ~22% upside over the next twelve months.
American Express (NYSE:AXP) | Premium Customers Fuel Record Results
American Express has a different business model from Visa or Mastercard. Amex operates what’s known as a “closed-loop network,” meaning it acts as the de facto issuer, the network, and sometimes the acquirer in transactions. In contrast, Visa and Mastercard are open-loop networks. Such a strategy gives Amex direct control over customer relationships and allows it to capture more data and revenue per transaction.
It, too, is riding a wave of strong consumer spending. Last year was a banger period for Amex, with the company booking record revenue of $65.9 billion (up 10% FX-adjusted) and a record $10.1 billion in profit, with EPS up 25% over the prior year. Trump’s tariffs on Vietnamese goods and Indian coffee shouldn’t faze Amex’s high-net-worth cardholders, who keep swiping for luxury travel and fine dining. International spending rose 10% last quarter, and I doubt tariffs will hurt this pattern.
Another noteworthy trend to pay attention to is the surge in Amex’s younger customers. Millennials and Gen Z are Amex’s fastest-growing demographic, increasing their spending by 16% in the previous quarter compared to the prior year. For a 175-year-old brand long associated with corporate cards and Baby Boomers, catching fire with the Instagram generation is a big win set to sustain the wealth-creation engine for decades to come, irrespective of short-term headwinds, including the ongoing tariffs.
Is AXP Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
American Express is currently covered by 21 analysts, with the consensus leaning bullish. AXP stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating according to nine Buy, 11 Hold, and one Sell ratings over the past three months. AXP’s average price target of $295.68 implies a 17% upside potential over the next twelve months.
The Verdict
Visa, Mastercard, and Amex are the tollbooths of global spending, collecting fees regardless of economic weather. While Trump’s tariffs might seem disruptive today, pushing inflation fears, they shouldn’t directly dent their models or performance amid the current macro storm.
A recession could slow growth, but their dominance, from digital wallets to high-end travel, keeps them ahead. Visa offers scale, Mastercard blends tech and reach, while Amex benefits from its unparalleled prestige. In the meantime, since higher prices have historically served as a tailwind for all three companies, the possibility of inflation spiking could once again work in their favor.