What goes up must come down, as we all know. This fact of physics is the underlying worry of the stock market, that fuels our suspicions of bubbles. But investment firm Goldman Sachs doesn’t believe we should worry; the firm’s chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer gives several reasons to expect that the market’s current upward trend is real. His key points include the equity risk premium, the real profits realized by the Big Tech giants, and the high savings rate of US households coming out of the COVID pandemic.
Taking these points one at a time, Oppenheimer notes that in today’s regime of record-low interest rates, higher-risk stocks offer a premium; that is, their potential returns are far higher than safe bonds, and justify the added risk factor. On the second point, the giants of the tech industry represent a massive concentration of capital and wealth in just a few companies (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google); but these companies built that concentration through strong fundamentals and real profit growth, rather than bubble inflation. And finally, on the point of savings, the decline in overall economic activity during the pandemic period has left US households with some $1.5 trillion in accumulated savings – which can be used for retail stock investing.
Taking Oppenheimer’s outlook and turning it into concrete recommendations, the pros at Goldman Sachs are giving three stocks a thumbs up. Specifically, the firm’s analysts see over 50% upside potential in store for each. We’ve looked up these stock calls in the TipRanks database, to find out if Wall Street agrees with Goldman’s take.
SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX)
The first Goldman pick we’re looking at is a clinical-stage biotech firm in the oncology niche. SpringWorks uses a precision medicine approach in its development and commercialization of medical treatments for patient populations suffering from severe cancers and rare diseases. The company has an active pipeline, with programs investigating drug candidates for the treatment of desmoid tumors, plexiform neurofibromas, multiple myeloma, and metastatic solid tumors.
The first two programs are the most highly advanced. Nirogacestat, the drug in testing against desmoid tumors, is undergoing Phase 3 study, and has received Orphan Drug Designation and Fast Track Designation from the FDA. The drug candidate operates through two therapeutic mechanisms, and has shown promise against multiple myeloma. Clinical studies of nirogacestat are underway for several additional indications.
Mirdametinib, the company next most advanced drug candidate, is undergoing Phase 2b trial as a treatment for inoperable plexiform neurofibromas (NF1-PN). This is a rare cancer of the nervous system, affected the peripheral nerve sheaths and causing serious pain and disfigurement. NF1-PN can affect both children and adults, and mirdametinib is being studied as a treatment for both populations. As with Nirogacestat, the FDA has given Orphan Drug and Fast Track designations to this program. The trial is currently 70% enrolled and early data is described as ‘encouraging.’
A large and active research program will always draw attention from Wall Street’s biotech experts, and Goldman analyst Corinne Jenkins has noted several upcoming catalysts for SprinWorks: “1) DeFi topline data in desmoid tumors (2H21), 2) mirdametinib + lifirafenib combination data (2021), 3) BGB-3245 first-in-human data (2021), 4) DREAMM-5 update in MM (2H21), and 5) detailed ReNeu interim clinical results (2021).”
Building from that, the analyst sees the company showing strong return potential.
“[We] see upside to the commercial outlook for SWTX’s rare oncology programs driven by extended duration of therapy, but view the clinical results expected this year as well-understood and therefore unlikely to significantly drive stock performance. We frame the collection of upcoming catalysts in a scenario analysis below which supports our view of an attractive risk/reward for the stock over the balance of 2021,” Jenkins opined.
It should come as no surprise, then, that Jenkins is a fan. Jenkins rates SWTX a Buy, and her $112 one-year price target implies an upside of ~66% from current levels.
Goldman Sachs is hardly the only firm to be impressed with SpringWorks. The company’s stock has 4 Buy reviews, for a unanimous Strong Buy consensus rating. The shares are priced at $67.28, and their $110 average price target suggests 63.5% upside potential for the coming months. (See SWTX stock analysis)
Targa Resources Corporation (TRGP)
We’ll shift gears now, and take a look at one of the energy sector’s midstream companies. Midstreamers are the companies that transport the hydrocarbons from wellheads to markets; splitting production and transport allows companies to streamline their operations. Targa operates a network of midstream assets in North America, mainly in Oklahoma-New Mexico-Texas-Louisiana. Assets include natural gas and crude oil pipelines, with ops divided into two segments: gathering & processing and logistics & transportation.
Targa has seen business increase over the past year. TRGP achieved 4Q20 adj EBITDA of $438 million, slightly above the $433 million Street median estimate. Full year adj EBITDA of $1.637 billion exceeded the $1.5bn-$1.625bn guide. Looking ahead, TRGP expects 2021 adj. EBITDA of $1.675bn-$1.775bn, or 5% YoY growth at the midpoint, which compares favorably to the Street median estimates of $1.698bn/$1.684bn.
Targa’s shares have been rising. The stock is up an impressive 375% in the past 12 months, and Goldman Sachs analyst John Mackay sees more upside in the cards.
Mackay gives TRGP a Buy rating, along with a $49 price target, suggesting a 51% one-year upside. (To watch Mackay’s track record, click here)
“Our thesis for TRGP, briefly put, is that we see its strategic Permian and downstream NGL assets supporting higher-than-consensus EBITDA (GSe ~7% higher on average vs. Eikon for 2022+), which could allow larger — and sooner than expected — incremental returns of capital — all supported by a valuation that remains relatively cheap…. [As] the year progresses, we expect the focus to shift to the large upcoming capital allocation catalyst that (we anticipate) should come in early 2022 once TRGP completes its planned DevCo consolidations,” Mackay wrote.
There is broad-based agreement on Wall Street that Targa is buying proposition. Of the 15 recent reviews, 13 are to Buy against just 2 Holds. The $38.27 average price target indicates a potential for 18% upside from the current trading price of $32.45. (See TRGP stock analysis on TipRanks)
ADT, Inc. (ADT)
For the last stock on Goldman’s list, we’ll switch gears again, this time to the home security sector. ADT provides a range of security services focused on alarm monitoring. Services include burglar and fire alarms, packages that include 24/7 monitoring, motion detectors, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, and ‘smart home’ modifications. ADT’s services are available in the residential and commercial markets.
The company’s revenue stream has remained stable through the past year, between $1.3 billion and $1.37 billion, and each quarter’s result was flat or slightly higher year-over-year. The full year’s revenues were 4% up from 2019. The company’s earnings net loss moderated through the year, and the Q4 result of a 14 cent net loss was the lowest of the year.
Among the bulls is Goldman Sachs analyst George Tong who writes: “We believe ADT is well positioned to capitalize on new growth opportunities, including strong new home construction trends and rising smart home demand, as it offensively steps up its subscriber acquisition costs by $150-250mn this year. With these investments, management plans to deliver accelerated mid-teens gross recurring monthly revenue additions growth in 2021. We expect ADT to increase its penetration of the fast growing smart home category longer-term with this incremental spend…”
The Goldman analyst sets a $13 price target on this stock to go along with his Buy rating, implying a 58% upside for the next 12 months. (To watch Tong’s track record, click here)
Tong takes the bullish view of ADT, but there is a range of opinions on Wall Street. ADT has a Moderate Buy rating, based on a 3-1-1 split between Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings. The current share price is $8.21, and the average price target of $10.55 suggests ~28.5% upside from that level. (See ADT stock analysis on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
