Do Super Bowl Ads Create Super Stock Prices?

Super Bowl LVI was a night of headlines, as it should be. In addition to the game itself, America’s biggest Football matchup was nearly overshadowed by the halftime show, the high-tech stadium, and of course, the advertisements. The latter of which is almost as entertaining, or even more so, than the sport, and due to the large viewership of the game, often spurs high volumes of media buzz.  

The chance at online trending glory is so sought after, that ad spots for the Super bowl go for millions of dollars for just 30 seconds of airtime. This tight window forces companies to come up with quality content, as a controversial or heartwarming commercial may affect the brand and possibly even its stock price. 

However, translating an advertisement into an elevated market cap is not the simple task it may seem to be. A 2009 study undertaken by the School of Management at the University of Buffalo and Cornell University concluded that if it’s received positively, an ad could likewise affect a stock price. Researchers looked at hundreds of commercials over a 17-year period, and observed above average volumes of trading on the correlated stocks following the Super Sunday game.  

It is important to note that the opposite was not true, i.e., commercials that were classified as negative did not take their stocks in a negative direction.  

This year saw an interesting breed of companies buying ad spots during the big game, namely crypto-related firms like Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN). The cryptocurrency trading platform ran a unique ad, of a simple QR code bouncing around the corners of a black screen. 

Beyond the changing colors of the QR code, nothing more seems to have gone into its production. Despite the low costs, the ad was highly successful in driving viewers to download the app, eventually crashing it temporarily.  

While positive Super bowl ads may on average positively affect Monday stock market prices, they have not been found to fundamentally change interest in a company in the long-term. An individual and expensive ad may be memorable, but it takes far more advertising to meaningfully impact consumer brand awareness.  

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