Analyst Cheers a Revenue Beat at XpresSpa — So Why Is Everybody Else Selling?

“Revenue Beat, Business Momentum, Aided by Return in Travel, Favorable for Remainder of 2021, 2022, Reit[erate] Buy.”

So read the headline of H.C. Wainwright analyst Scott Buck‘s report Tuesday, highlighting why he thinks airport spa service provider XpresSpa Group (XSPA) stock remains a “buy” after its Q2 2021 financial report that came out Monday night. Buck also gives the stock a $3.5 price target that indicates room for a whopping 134% upside potential in the next 12 months.

And yet, investors seem to disagree with that assessment. On Tuesday, XpresSpa stock sank ~10%. Why?

As XpresSpa reported, it grew its revenues in Q2 a staggering 6,264% in comparison with Q2 2020, with almost all of the increase coming from 12 XpresCheck airport locations providing Covid-19 testing services to travelers. Combined, these XpresCheck locations contributed $8.7 million of the company’s $9.1 million in Q2 sales. Talk about being in the right place at the right time.

As company CEO Doug Satzman commented: “At the onset of the pandemic last March, we saw an opportunity for COVID-19 testing at major U.S. airports and moved quickly to realize that vision. Since then, XpresCheck has vastly surpassed our expectations as testing numbers continue to increase due to the resumption of travel.” And yet, despite this increase in business, XpresSpa still managed to lose $4.7 million in the quarter — definitely an improvement over the $58.5 million the company lost in last year’s Q2, but still definitely a loss.

That loss probably explains why investors weren’t thrilled with the financial results for the quarter. But what accounts for Buck’s enthusiasm for the company after yet another money-losing quarter — its 22nd in a row — for XpresSpa?

As Buck explains, XpresSpa’s sales in Q2 were “meaningfully ahead” of the analyst’s expectations for sales of just $6.9 million. Business momentum at the well-timed entry into the airport Covid check business — sales up 146% sequentially from Q1 — also seems likely to continue, with the CEO predicting that “due to the emergence of more highly contagious COVID-19 variants such as Delta, along with break-through vaccination infections, testing will remain an important part of travel, especially international travel, for the foreseeable future.”

At the same time, Buck observes that XpresSpa reopened four of its spa locations in Q2, and is planning to open eight to 10 more in the fall, enhancing the revenue stream from the company’s original business model of providing spa services to travelers in-airport.

Looking ahead, Buck predicts that the spa side of things at XpresSpa should be able to return to historical levels of $40 million to $50 million in annual revenue, such as it produced all through the 2017 to 2019 pre-pandemic period. The analyst doesn’t say when these revenues will return, granted. But what he does say is that he expects the company’s revenues to nearly double from $39 million this year to $74.3 million in 2022 — a level that would probably require both a “return to normal” for the spa business, as well as continued growth in the XpresCheck business to reach it.

Finally, Buck points out that XpresSpa has managed to renegotiate its airport leases to permit it to operate spa locations only during a given airport’s business times of operation, a fact that the analyst believes should permit the company to earn profit margins above the 20% rates it commanded prior to the pandemic. And if that works out, XpresSpa could earn its first quarterly profit ever sometime in late 2022.

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.