It’s almost time for the 4Q23 reports to start pouring in and going by some of the latest data, investors should get ready for a solid display from Amazon (AMZN).
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According to the Truist Card data, firm analyst Youssef Squali notes that Amazon’s US Revenue for 4Q23 is tracking “slightly ahead” of consensus expectations of $103.1 billion, and nearer to ~$104 billion. Squali is calling for $104.3 billion, amounting to a 11.7% year-over-year increase.
As such, for the quarter, Squali expects total revenues to outpace the Street’s forecast, anticipating $167.1 billion (up 12% YoY), ahead of the Street’s call for $166.0 billion, (an 11.2% YoY increase) and right at the top-end of the guide for $160-167 billion. “Importantly,” says the 5-star analyst, “we expect Amazon to show continued share gains over this past Holiday Season and believe the company’s 4Q23 NA Revenues have benefited from strong US online holiday sales.”
According to Adobe, US Online Holiday Sales (between November 1 and December 31) reached a record- $222.1 billion, amounting to almost 5% growth and which Squali thinks serves as a strong omen Amazon performed well. Although Amazon did not offer any specific details, it did say sales over its extended Black Friday and Cyber Monday event (November 17 – 27) increased on a YoY basis and hit record levels.
Over the last 20+ years, Amazon has been growing its share of the ecommerce market, and continues to be the driving force, with Squali estimating it commanded a 50% share in 4Q23 and ~48% for the full year.
Squali credits the ongoing increase in market share to the company’s extensive product range, “best-in-class delivery speeds,” the effectiveness of Prime, and the introduction of services such as Buy with Prime and Supply Chain by Amazon. “We continue to believe BwP along with Supply Chain by Amazon represent material growth drivers for the company in 2024 and beyond, and we believe AMZN has a running start to address this $100B+ opportunity, given its scale and its proven AWS playbook,” The analyst summed up.
To this end, Squali reiterated a Buy rating on the shares and raised his price target from $176 to $180, making room for 12-month returns of 16%. (To watch Squali’s track record, click here)
Squali is just one of many Wall Street AMZN bulls. In fact, all currently are, with the stock’s Strong Buy consensus rating based on a unanimous 42 Buys. The average target stands at $184.23, suggesting shares will post growth of 19% in the year ahead. (See Amazon stock forecast on TipRanks)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
