Airbnb: Strong Travel Recovery May Not Be Enough

Shares of stays and experience platform provider Airbnb (ABNB) have fallen under a considerable amount of selling pressure of late. With the high-multiple tech trade losing traction to the more profitable value plays, it’s become tough to be an Airbnb shareholder.

While Airbnb may be a pioneer of its field with a robust network, the rise of rivals in the online travel agency space could be a source of moat erosion. Indeed, as an original innovator, Airbnb needs to effectively leverage its network to offset the seemingly insurmountable headwinds that it continues to face.

The good news is that the worst of COVID-19 headwinds seems to be behind the firm. With Omicron cases continuing to fall, restrictions are bound to fall across a wider range of geographies. Indeed, the masks are finally coming off, and that’s a really good sign for travel and leisure stocks.

COVID-19 Headwinds Fading: A Green Light to Buy?

Airbnb’s latest quarter showed evidence of a remarkably strong travel recovery.

Indeed, there looks to be a lot of pent-up demand that may have yet to be met. As the worldwide reopening from COVID-19 continues, it will be interesting to see how Airbnb stock fares after navigating one of the worst crises in its history. For now, I am neutral on the stock.

Although I wouldn’t be a buyer on the dip, I also wouldn’t sell if you got in at a bad price, given travel demand is likely to remain strong through 2022. Of course, another wave of COVID-19 or a recession (the U.S. yield curve has really flattened out in recent weeks) could change this.

Airbnb: Great Growth, but at What Price?

While I’m a huge fan of Airbnb’s business, its valuation is a significant knock against the company.

The stock remains frothy at around 16 times sales, even after slipping 18% from its February 2022 high and 28% from its all-time high hit in the back early 2021. Further, the lack of profitability could leave ABNB stock on the receiving end of a continuation of any rate-induced tech-targeted sell-off.

Rates are likely to head higher from here, perhaps much higher as the Ukraine-Russia crisis could be making the global inflation problem worse, with WTI prices now well above the US$100 level. Indeed, the Ukraine crisis could also pave the way for an economic slowdown or recession, which would not bode well for discretionary firms like Airbnb.

Moreover, there’s some uncertainty regarding how Airbnb plans to push into profitability at this juncture. Profits really matter these days, with rates ready to rise. Many investors are discovering that it’ll take more than just high sales growth rates to justify a high-double-digit price-to-revenue multiple.

Competition Could Weigh on Airbnb’s Long-Term Profitability Prospects

Indeed, the popularity of Airbnb’s alternative accommodation platform of connecting guests and hosts is intriguing, but has the firm formed a moat around its business model?

Arguably, its strong network is its greatest moat component. Such a strong network isn’t stopping the competition, though.

Rivals within the hotel and vacation booking space are well beyond just taking notice of Airbnb and the alternative accommodations market. If there’s growth to be had, firms will take note, especially those that stand to see their businesses be disrupted.

With companies like Expedia (EXPE) already aggressively marketing its Vrbo vacation rentals offering, I do think that traditional accommodation platforms are catching up with the times. Such rivals could pose a serious risk to Airbnb’s dominance and weigh heavily on margins, pushing profitability further out.

As competitors like Expedia and others invest in beckoning Airbnb users to their platforms, Airbnb will also need to continue investing heavily in initiatives to stay ahead. Investments in innovation do not come cheap, and I suspect the firm could be beyond the point of diminishing marginal returns.

Wall Street’s Take

Turning to Wall Street, ABNB stock comes in as a Moderate Buy. Out of 28 analyst ratings, there are 10 Buys, 17 Holds, and one Sell recommendation.

The average Airbnb price target is $201.92, implying an upside potential of 28.2%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $150.00 per share to a high of $250.00 per share.

The Bottom Line on Airbnb Stock

Airbnb’s fourth-quarter results were truly outstanding. The travel recovery looks to be in full swing. That said, Airbnb stock is still expensive, with hungry rivals and profitability prospects that could diminish.

In short, demand is there, but the stock looks expensive, and growing competition would make me feel uneasy. For now, I’m content with sitting on the sidelines.

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