It seems eVTOL hopeful Archer Aviation (ACHR) might have something to say after the closing bell on Monday. While shares are still down about 9% for the year, Wall Street’s mood around the name has been shifting, and one analyst, in particular, is doubling down ahead of the company’s Q1 earnings call.
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Cantor Fitzgerald’s Andres Sheppard reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating, keeping a firm $13 price target. That suggests a tidy 47.5% upside from today’s level.
He doesn’t just see the buzz around flying cars, though Archer’s Midnight aircraft did grab headlines in New York last month. Still, it’s more about the playbook the company’s quietly been building in the background: strong partnerships, smart financials, and an early international push that could beat the FAA to the punch. In fact, Archer plans to start operations and make money in other countries first, where rules may be easier or quicker, before getting full approval to operate at home.
“Bullish for the Long Term”
Sheppard’s note reads like someone who sees more than just blue-sky ambition in Archer’s flight path.
He points to a stacked roster of strategic allies in Anduril, the Department of Defense, Stellantis (STLA), Palantir (PLTR), and United Airlines (UAL), to name a few. That’s not window dressing. These partnerships, Sheppard says, give Archer a real shot at commercializing before the rest of the pack.
And demand isn’t hypothetical anymore because of an order book exceeding $6 billion and over $26 million in pre-delivery payments already logged. Archer isn’t trying to be Uber (UBER) in the sky. Instead, it’s leaning into a direct sales model, with aircraft pricing that could beat early estimates of $5 million per unit.
“We view these partnerships as key to ramping commercialization efforts, expanding TAM, and facilitating operations and manufacturing,” Sheppard wrote.
But what about the elephant in the hangar—FAA certification? That’s where Archer’s hedge comes in: hybrid VTOL aircraft. It’s a “just in case” that lets the company make progress even if the FAA takes its sweet time. This hybrid VTOL program provides Archer with an alternative revenue stream and technological path, reducing reliance on FAA certification timelines for its commercial eVTOL aircraft.
Q1 Earnings: What to Watch For
Wall Street is closely watching Monday’s earnings report. Consensus estimates call for an EPS of -$0.28 and revenue of $1.83 million, slightly better than last quarter, when Archer missed expectations but still saw its stock jump 12% the following day.
Investors will be listening closely for:
- Updates on FAA certification progress
- Details on the Launch Edition Program, especially the rollout with Abu Dhabi Aviation
- Guidance on 2025 deliveries and order momentum
- Any burn rate clues that could change the cash runway narrative
Remember, Archer says Abu Dhabi could see its first Midnight aircraft this year, a move that could bring real revenue forward before the FAA greenlight hits.
Is Archer Aviation Stock a Good Buy?
Wall Street analysts think so, giving it a Strong Buy rating. The average ACHR stock price target is $12.83, implying a 45.63% upside.
