Andrew Ferguson’s FTC Appointment Signals Increased M&A Activity in 2025

Donald Trump’s election victory led many in the conservative ranks to declare the next four years a mandate for a top-down overhaul of the Federal Government, emphasizing deregulation and a business-friendly culture. In the following weeks, Trump unveiled a cabinet rich with business titans, such as Liberty Energy (LBYE) CEO Chris Wright as Secretary of Energy, Cantor Fitzgerald Chief Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce, and Key Square Group CEO Scott Bessent as Secretary of the Treasury.

Andrew Ferguson’s FTC Appointment

However, a less-publicized but no less consequential appointment occurred in the Federal Trade Commission. Andrew Ferguson was selected to replace Lina Khan as Chair of the antitrust-focused agency. Khan assumed the role at just 32 years of age but had already staked her name due to the essay, “Amazon’s Antitrust Paradox,” authored during her time at Yale Law School. A progressive intent on stifling corruption through antitrust lawsuits, her actions as head of the FTC reinforced that reputation. Under her leadership, the FTC abolished non-compete contract clauses and slowed M&A activity, leading to condemnation from Conservative and Democratic business leaders. 

While Lina Khan drew occasional praise from conservative lawmakers for her critical stance on Big Tech, on December 10, President-Elect Trump announced Andrew Ferguson to take over as Chief of the FTC. With bipartisan approval, Ferguson was nominated by President Joe Biden as a member of the Federal Trade Commission in 2023. In his time within the FTC, he has authored several notable dissents from Khan’s decision-making, providing a framework for the agency under his command.

Chevron’s Hess Acquisition as Case In Point

No better example of the disparity between their systems of beliefs rose to a head during Chevron’s (CVX) acquisition of the Hess Corporation. Announced in October 2023 and advised by investment banking powerhouses JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Evercore (EVR), the $53 billion acquisition saw unanimous approval from both companies’ Boards of Directors.

However, the FTC argued that the acquisition violated Section 7 of the Clayton Act, prohibiting commerce to lessen competition or create a monopoly. Ferguson dissented, arguing, “Chevron and Hess together have a two percent share of the relevant market. No court has ever blocked a merger between companies with such small shares.” Ferguson goes further to describe the acquisition as “unobjectionable” and fueled by Democratic politicians seeking to advance a climate agenda. The acquisition was eventually approved, although Hess CEO John Hess was banned from joining the Chevron Board of Directors.

Ferguson’s Impact on Investment Banking

As Andrew Ferguson is expected to present a far friendlier face to the business community, investment banks currently project substantial growth in M&A activity in 2025, fueling their business and revenues. After a furious 2021, M&A activity slowed substantially throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023. Although picking up momentum throughout 2024, M&A volume remains stubbornly lower than 2021 heights. Khan’s regulatory framework of the FTC has contributed to the slowdown, as deals worth over $10 billion have increased their closing times by 66% between 2018 and 2022.

The FTC’s business-friendly restructuring will also contend with the new administration’s widespread tariff policies expected to be levied against China, Mexico, and Canada. An uncertain economic and geopolitical climate may cause multinational businesses to hesitate in implementing aggressive financial mergers. Cross-regional M&A represented 30% of global transaction volume in 2024, which may be severely at risk in a multinational tariff war.

However, strong equity markets, driven by record stock market prices and strong economic growth throughout 2024, typically coincide with an influx of M&A activity. In their 2025 M&A Outlook, Goldman Sachs states, “Annual U.S. merger volumes have increased by an average of 101% in second-term presidencies”. While Trump’s non-consecutive term will be just the second in United States history, increased familiarity with his economic policies will likely produce similar confidence in the business community as a traditional second term.

Conclusion

Andrew Ferguson’s arrival as Chair of the Federal Trade Commission is widely anticipated to bring a seismic shift to the agency’s agenda, fueling a free-market approach likely to promote M&A activity in the upcoming year. Through strong equity markets, massive growth in AI estimated to be around 50% platform revenue CAGR, and a broad governmental push for deregulation, middle-market American corporations are likely to reap the benefits. And with an FTC chair welcoming an M&A business environment, investment bank revenues and growth will likely skyrocket in 2025, making them a sure bet for industry-wide investment.