Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) stock has been on a remarkable run, soaring 71% in 2025 and nearly 500% over the past year. This surge has propelled Palantir into the ranks of the top 10 most valuable U.S. tech firms, overtaking longtime heavyweights like IBM, Salesforce, and Cisco along the way.
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That kind of ascent doesn’t happen by accident. Fueling the rally is surging demand for Palantir’s AI-powered software platforms, as the company keeps delivering record revenues, expanding its client base, and chasing bold, bombastic ambitions.
Those ambitions were on full display in the company’s Q1 2025 earnings report, which blew projections and came with an upward revision to guidance. Both the commercial and government segments are firing on all cylinders, with new marquee clients like Qualcomm and NATO joining the fold.
Palantir’s government ties remain especially strong. Federal contracts still account for a hefty chunk of the business, and CEO Alex Karp remains a regular in D.C. power circles. Just last week, he joined President Trump’s corporate delegation on a high-profile trip to Saudi Arabia.
So, should you be jumping on the Palantir bandwagon? Not so fast, warns top investor Julian Lin.
“The stock has priced in a decade of growth, with the stock trading at comparable valuations to peers only after a 10x jump in its revenue run rate,” explains the 5-star investor, who is among the very top 1% of TipRanks’ stock pros.
Lin acknowledges that the company is performing admirably, even noting that its guidance appears “too conservative” given the rapidly accelerating revenues. And yet, the excitement surrounding the share price has simply gotten out of hand.
According to the investor, Palantir is trading at more than 200 times this year’s earnings. Even looking a full decade out, the stock is still priced at 19 times 2034 earnings estimates – levels that, in his view, imply that even near-perfect execution might not be enough to justify today’s lofty valuation.
“I find it extremely unlikely for the numbers to work out here, even if one has the patience of a monk,” adds Lin.
In other words, this is not one to buy and hold for years on end. For Lin, the writing is clearly on the wall, and it is time to head for the exits.
“I can confidently conclude that all of the gains have already been priced in,” sums up Lin, who urges investors not to “underestimate the lost decade ahead.” Lin is therefore rating PLTR shares a Strong Sell. (To watch Lin’s track record, click here)
Wall Street isn’t exactly brimming with optimism either. The analyst consensus skews cautious, with just 3 Buys against 11 Holds and 4 Sells. The average 12-month price target sits at $100.13, implying a potential drop of ~23% from current levels. (See PLTR stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.